[POM Daily Review] Limited Fundamental Support, Flexible Negotiations

1. Today's Summary

Spot circulation under pressure 。

② Mainly based on market negotiations for shipment.

2 Spot Market Overview

Table 1 Domestic POM Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Based on the Yuyao region, today's price of Yun Tianhua M90 is 11,000 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period. Today, the POM market remains stable and in a wait-and-see mode. Petrochemical plants are seeing slow sales, and there has been no improvement in sales across various regions. Most traders are selling based on current market conditions, with some offering negotiation room of 100-200 RMB/ton for flexible transactions. By the close of the market, the tax-inclusive price of domestic POM in the Yuyao market was 8,100-11,200 RMB/ton, and the cash price in the Dongguan market was 7,300-10,400 RMB/ton.

3 Production Dynamics

The domestic POM capacity utilization rate this week is 90.87%, a decrease of 0.98% compared to last week's operation rate. The 40,000-ton/year POM unit at Tianjin Bohua is shut down for maintenance, while POM units from other manufacturers are operating steadily. This week, the fluctuation in losses due to maintenance was limited. Methanol prices have declined, while POM prices remain stable. Therefore, the product’s gross profit margin has increased, resulting in a profit margin increase of 26 yuan per ton.

Figure 3 Trend of Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate in 2024-2025	Figure 4: Comparison of Domestic POM Profit and Price for 2024-2025 (CNY/ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

4. Price Prediction

The fundamentals remain stable, but short-term support is relatively limited. Petrochemical plants currently have no pressure to ship out goods. However, weak market trends continue across various regions, providing operators with relatively flexible maneuvering space. Some offers are continuing to negotiate shipments, with a range of 100-200 yuan/ton. End-users exhibit a strong wait-and-see attitude, with overall purchasing enthusiasm being rather lackluster, resulting in sporadic actual transactions. By the close, the tax-inclusive price of domestic materials in the Yuyao market was 8,100-11,200 yuan/ton, and the cash price of POM in the Dongguan market was 7,300-10,400 yuan/ton.

5 Relevant product information:

Methanol ： The current methanol spot price index is 2167.67, down 6.18. The spot price in Taicang is 2272, down 25, while the price in North Inner Mongolia is 2080, down 2.5. According to Longzhong's monitoring of 20 large and medium-sized cities, 13 cities experienced declines of varying degrees, with decreases ranging from 2.5 to 90 yuan/ton.Methanol MarketMost regions showed weak performance, with only some areas in Shanxi exhibiting premium transactions due to supply contraction in auctions. Intraday sharp declines in futures slightly suppressed market sentiment, while traditional downstream buyers pressured prices further, and traders generally quoted more actively. It is worth noting that the large-scale events at the beginning of September, combined with downstream rigid demand, warrant caution regarding the impact of rising freight costs on upstream and downstream transmission. Additionally, continued close attention should be paid to the resumption pace of methanol plants in some production areas and the impact of low-priced goods from Xinjiang. The port market remains weak, with the basis continuing to weaken intraday.

6 Data Calendar

Table 2 Overview of Domestic POM Data (Unit: 10,000 Tons)