[POM Daily Review] Limited Fundamental Support, Flexible Operations by Industry Players

1. Today's Summary

①、 Kaifeng Longyu POM plant will be shut down for maintenance on October 9, with a planned duration of about 20 days. 。

The Tianjin Bohua POM unit will be shut down for maintenance on July 7, and the startup time is not yet determined.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Yuyao area, today's price of Yuntianhua M90 is 10,800 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the previous period. Today's POM market is weakly consolidating. The fundamentals are weak, market sentiment is cautious, and there are no significant fluctuations in mainstream quotations. ， End-users are cautious in procurement follow-up, and buying and selling are hard to be optimistic. As of the closing, the domestic POM price in the Yuyao market is 8,100-11,100 yuan/ton including tax, and the POM cash price in the Dongguan market is 7,300-10,400 yuan/ton.

3 Production Dynamics

This week's domestic POM capacity utilization rate is 93.09%, a decrease of 0.98% compared to last week. Tianjin Bohua's 40,000-ton/year POM plant was shut down for maintenance on July 7, Kaifeng Longyu 4 The POM unit with a capacity of 10,000 tons/year will undergo maintenance shutdown on October 9. This week's maintenance loss has increased. Methanol prices are falling, POM prices remain stable. The gross profit margin of the product continues to rise, increasing the profit space by 15 yuan per ton.

Figure 3: Trends in Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate for 2024-2025	Figure 4 Comparison of Domestic POM Profits and Prices for 2024-2025 (Yuan/Ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

4. Price Forecast

During the week, the shipping situation in various regions was unsatisfactory, with limited guidance from petrochemical plants. Ex-factory prices remained stable, market inquiries were weak, and traders were not very motivated. There was a continued bearish sentiment in the short term, with some offers open to negotiation. End-user factories operated at low capacity, and users made sporadic restocking purchases, with transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis.Longzhong expects the domestic POM market to stabilize in the short term.

5 Related product information:

MethanolToday, the methanol spot price index is 2170.19, up 3.02. The spot price in Taicang is 2285, down 15, and the price in Inner Mongolia's North Line is 2082.5, up 12.5. According to Longzhong's monitoring of prices in 20 major cities, four cities have experienced varying degrees of increase, with price rises ranging from 5 to 20 yuan/ton. The overall atmosphere in the domestic methanol market has weakened somewhat today, as the macro sanction situation has slightly eased. During the day, methanol futures experienced a significant drop, which has impacted the port market, leading to a noticeable shift in price focus. The basis showed strong performance initially and then weakened later in the day. Continued attention is required on the main storage areas' response plans for sanctioned vessels. The inland trading atmosphere also weakened during the day, with some enterprise auctions in production areas failing to attract bids in the afternoon, and trade turnover slightly loosening. Close monitoring of upstream inventory changes is essential.

6 Data Calendar

Table 2 Overview of Domestic POM Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)