[POM Daily Review] Insufficient Fundamental Support, Market Under Pressure to Sell

1. Today's Summary

①、 Kaifeng Longyu POM unit will undergo maintenance shutdown on October 9, and Hebi Longyu POM unit will undergo maintenance shutdown on October 20. 。

The Tianjin Bohua POM unit was shut down for maintenance on July 7, and the start-up time is not yet determined.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Yuyao area, the price of Yuntianhua M90 is 10,600 RMB/ton today, stable compared to the previous period. Today, the POM market remains stable with no clear guidance from the fundamentals. The shipment speed in various regions is slow, and there are no clear signs of improvement in the market. Traders' sentiment is relatively weak, and transactions are unsatisfactory. As of the close, the domestic POM price in the Yuyao market is 8,100-11,100 RMB/ton (including tax), while the cash price in the Dongguan market is 7,300-10,400 RMB/ton.

3 Production dynamics

This week, the domestic POM capacity utilization rate is 82.00%, a decrease of 5.21% compared to last week. Tianjin Bohua's 40,000 tons/year POM unit was shut down for maintenance on July 7th, Kaifeng Longyu 4 The POM unit with a capacity of 10,000 tons/year will be shut down for maintenance on October 9. The Hebi Longyu 60,000 tons/year POM unit will be shut down for maintenance on October 20, and the loss of production due to maintenance has increased this week. This week's POM production cost adjustment. The product's gross profit margin slightly increased, with the profit margin rising by 12 yuan per ton.

Figure 3 Trend of Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate from 2024 to 2025	Figure 4 Comparison of Domestic POM Profit and Price for 2024-2025 (CNY/ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

4. Price Prediction

At the beginning of the week, shipments in various regions showed no significant improvement, with the supply side remaining weak. Some petrochemical plants have low inventory levels, suggesting no immediate downward trend. However, market inquiries are relatively inactive, increasing the pressure on traders to sell. Some offers have room for negotiation, as end-user factories are operating below capacity and have little intention to restock, with actual transactions being negotiated based on quantity. Longzhong predicts that the domestic POM market will be weak in the short term.

5 Relevant product information:

MethanolToday's methanol spot price index is 2124.67, down 5.29. The spot price in Taicang is 2230, down 10, while the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line is 2037.5, down 2.5. According to Longzhong's monitoring of prices in 20 major cities, 13 cities have experienced varying degrees of decline, with price drops ranging from 2.5 to 30 yuan/ton. On Monday, the domestic methanol market showed an overall weak and fluctuating performance. In addition to the weak transmission from the futures market, recent rapid declines in downstream related product prices have significantly squeezed the economics of MTO, and some projects face the risk of shutdown in November. Coupled with the expectation of relatively ample domestic and imported supplies, the supply-demand situation for methanol is weakening, which may suppress the overall market's willingness to hold inventory. Today's methanol port focus has slightly declined, and the basis has weakened significantly; some auctions in domestic production areas have faced failures. Close attention should be paid to the overall shipping rhythm in domestic production areas.

6 Data Calendar

Table 2 Overview of Domestic POM Data (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)