[POM Daily Review] Demand Performance Flat, Industry Players Cautiously Bearish

1. Today's Summary

①、 Kaifeng Longyu POM unit shut down for maintenance on October 9th. 。

②. Tianjin Bohua's POM plant was shut down for maintenance on July 7, and the restart date is yet to be determined.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Yuyao region, today's price for Yuntianhua M90 is 10,800 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous period. Today, the POM market is narrowly consolidating. The spot circulation is slow, and the pressure on petrochemical plants to sell is difficult to alleviate, leading some manufacturers to reduce their ex-factory prices. ， Market inquiry behavior is relatively low. Traders' bearish sentiment increases. ， The market was sluggish. By the close, the tax-inclusive price of domestic POM in the Yuyao market was 8,100-11,100 yuan/ton, and the cash price of POM in the Dongguan market was 7,300-10,400 yuan/ton.

3 Production Dynamics

This week, the domestic POM capacity utilization rate is 94.06%, an increase of 7.31% compared to last week. Tianjin Bohua's 40,000 tons/year POM unit will be shut down for maintenance on July 7, and Kaifeng Longyu. The POM unit with a capacity of 10,000 tons/year will be shut down for maintenance on October 9th. This week's maintenance loss has decreased. Methanol prices are declining, while POM prices remain stable. As a result, the product's gross profit margin increased, and the profit margin increased by 27 yuan per ton.

Figure 3 Trend of Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate for 2024-2025	Figure 4 Comparison of Domestic POM Profits and Prices for 2024-2025 (Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

4. Price Forecast

After the holiday, there is no favorable support for the fundamentals. Due to high inventory accumulation, some manufacturers are reportedly considering price reductions, increasing market pressure for sales. Traders are gradually lowering their quoted prices, while end-user demand is recovering slowly. Factory operating rates remain low, and given the ample pre-holiday stockpiling, user purchasing enthusiasm is lacking. Actual transactions are negotiated on a case-by-case basis.Longzhong expects that the domestic POM market will undergo weak adjustments in the short term.

5 Relevant product information:

Methanol:Today's methanol spot price index is 2155.07, down by 3.64. The Taicang spot price is 2225, up by 12, while the Inner Mongolia northern line price is 2077.5, down by 5. According to Longzhong's monitoring of prices in 20 large and medium-sized cities, 6 cities experienced varying degrees of decline, with a drop ranging from 2 to 40 yuan/ton. Today's domestic methanol market showed differentiated performance. The port prices slightly increased in the afternoon following the market rebound, and the buying interest improved slightly due to the sanctioned ship incident, with a slightly stronger basis. The impact and duration of this incident should be closely watched. The inland market was relatively weak; although some olefins in Inner Mongolia still have external procurement incentives, the overall decline in the eastern market was significant. Downstream buyers in northern Shandong continued to press prices for procurement, and overall market sentiment was weak. Most upstream factories focused on actively reducing prices to sell goods. Attention should be paid to how the restoration of low freight rates will impact the upstream and downstream markets.

6 Data Calendar

Table 2 Overview of Domestic POM Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)