[Polyethylene PE Market Weekly Outlook] Polyethylene Prices Expected to Fluctuate This Week

1. Focus Points

1 Cost side: Although market concerns over US tariff issues have eased, some weak economic data have made traders cautious, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures September contract fell by $0.87 per barrel to $65.16, down 1.32% on a weekly basis; ICE Brent crude futures September contract dropped by $0.74 per barrel to $68.44, down 1.07% on a weekly basis. 。

2 Current parking device: Currently, the parking involves 20 sets of polyethylene units, with no new units scheduled for maintenance.

3 Yesterday's Market Review: Yesterday, domestic polyethylene market prices increased by 9-53 yuan/ton. Last week, the market was strongly affected by policy factors, with the advancement of anti-involution measures in China, evaluations of outdated petrochemical facilities, and inspections of coal mine production by the National Energy Administration being carried out one after another. The black series led the market upward, and market sentiment for polyethylene improved somewhat. However, the supply-demand structure showed no improvement, demand followed up poorly, and both buyers and sellers in the market became cautious, limiting the price increase of polyethylene.

Core Logic: The polyethylene spot market is fluctuating.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

Polyethylene prices are expected to exhibit a stable trend this week. Key points to note: 1. Cost aspect: oil-based cost support is expected to weaken, while coal-based cost support is expected to strengthen; 2. Supply aspect: this week involves the restart of units at Fujian United, Daqing Petrochemical, Yanchang Zhongmei, and Eneng Chemical, with only the planned maintenance unit at Jinhai Chemical expected to increase. Total production this week is forecasted at 646,300 tons, an increase of 31,200 tons compared to last week; 3. Demand aspect: the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries is expected to rise by 0.26% this week. Demand changes are relatively minor; the market still holds some cyclical restocking potential, with relatively stable demand in daily chemicals and food packaging sectors, and some stockpiling observed, leading to extended production order days. In summary, polyethylene supply pressure is increasing while demand support remains limited. The policy on assessing outdated capacity may stimulate the market to some extent, but attention should still be paid to changes on the demand side. A stable price trend is anticipated.

4. Data Calendar