【Plastics Market Morning Brief】International oil prices decline! PE and PVC are expected to operate with a slightly stronger bias, while PS may stabilize and enter a wait-and-see mode.

Summary: On March 4, the morning market update for general plastics! The market is concerned that additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. will drag down the global economy and demand, and it remains uncertain whether OPEC+ will delay its production increase plan, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The PP market is mainly consolidating within a range; PE and PVC are showing a slightly stronger fluctuation; the PS market may stabilize and observe in the short term; ABS prices are mainly maintaining a narrow consolidation; the EVA market may show a firm consolidation trend.

PP

I. Points of Focus

1. On March 3: The market is concerned that additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. will drag down the global economy and demand, and it remains uncertain whether OPEC+ will delay its production increase plan, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEXcrude oil futures April contract fell by $1.39 to $68.37 per barrel, a decrease of -1.99% month-over-month; the ICE Brent crude oil futures May contract fell by $1.19 to $71.62 per barrel, a decrease of -1.63% month-over-month. The main contract of China's INE crude oil futures 2504 fell by 3.3 to 539.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 12.7 to 526.5 yuan per barrel during the night session.

2. On March 3: The FOB Korea price of propylene was at $825 per ton, while the CFR China price fell by $5 to $850 per ton.

3. On March 3: Details of changes in domestic PP maintenance facilities: Sichuan Petrochemical (450,000 tons/year) restarted its PP facility. Guangdong Petrochemical Line 1 (500,000 tons/year) restarted its PP facility.

Core Logic:Downstream demand continues to recover,Sentiment in the market is slightly improving.

II. Price List

 III. Market Outlook

Yesterday, some maintenance units restarted, leading to a slight increase in supply. Downstream demand was flat, with limited growth in orders. Most continued to purchase based on immediate needs. However, as the Two Sessions approach, sentiment in the market is slightly improving, and industry players are looking forward to favorable macro policies to boost the market. It is expected that today's polypropylene market will mainly be in a consolidation phase, with mainstream prices for wire drawing in East China ranging from 7340-7460 yuan/ton.

PE

I. Points of Focus

1、Cost End: The market is concerned that the additional tariffs imposed by the US will drag down the global economy and demand, and it is still uncertain whether OPEC+ can postpone its production increase plan, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEXcrude oil futures 04 contract fell by $1.39 per barrel to $68.37, a decrease of -1.99% month-over-month; ICE Brent crude futures 05 contract fell by $1.19 per barrel to $71.62, a decrease of -1.63% month-over-month.

2、Currently Shutdown Units: Currently, 13 polyethylene units are shut down, with no new units under maintenance.

3、Market Review of Yesterday: The domestic polyethylene market saw mixed price movements on the previous day, with fluctuations ranging from 2-19 yuan/ton. Macro benefits, coupled with limited spot resources at the beginning of the month, led to some traders testing small price increases, and the market saw good transactions at lower prices.

Core Logic: The spot market for polyethylene is operating with a slightly stronger trend.

II. Price List

3. Market Outlook

In the short term, inventory is relatively low compared to the same period, and there is no supply pressure, allowing prices to remain firm; demand has entered a small peak season, with rigid demand still existing. Overall, the supply and demand margins are easing, and it is expected that the market will show a strong fluctuation trend.

PVC

1. Focus Points

1. 3/3: Concerns over US-imposed tariffs dragging down the global economy and demand, along with uncertainty about whether OPEC+ can delay its production increase plan, have led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEXCrude Oil Futures April contract fell by $1.39 per barrel to $68.37, a decrease of -1.99% month-over-month; the ICE Brent crude futures May contract decreased by $1.19 per barrel to $71.62, a drop of -1.63% month-over-month. The main contract for China's INE crude oil futures 2504 fell by 3.3 to 539.2 yuan per barrel, and during the night session, it dropped by 12.7 to 526.5 yuan per barrel.

2. Calcium carbide: Yesterday, the mainstream trading price in Wuhai area was raised to 2550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. Producers' shipments were smooth. Downstream purchasing was active, and the rainy and snowy weather in the northern region increased the enthusiasm for procurement and stockpiling. However, as costs declined, corporate profits improved, and the willingness to start calcium carbide production increased. It is expected that today, the domestic calcium carbide market will mainly maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

3, PVC: Yesterday, the domestic PVC market prices fluctuated upward, with overall acceptable transactions. The rise in the price of raw material calcium carbide strengthened cost support. Coupled with improved macro expectations, the intraday prices of petrochemicals and other major commodities rose, boosting the trading atmosphere of the PVC spot market, and the spot prices followed with a slight increase. As of March 3, the warehouse delivery price of Type V calcium carbide method in East China is 4950-5080 yuan/ton, while the ethylene method is 5100-5400 yuan/ton.

II. Price Table

III. Market Outlook

From a short-term fundamental perspective, the PV supply side is expected to show a slow growth trend due to reduced maintenance, with domestic demand remaining stable but weak. Foreign trade exports are in a stalemate, making it difficult for the industry to reduce inventory in the short term. On the cost side, the increase in prices of calcium carbide and other materials has strengthened the cost support for enterprises, providing a bottom support for market prices. Looking ahead, the supply-demand structure has not changed, and the market is still influenced by expected macro factors, maintaining a strong fluctuation within a range. It is estimated that today's domestic PVC market price for SG-5 in East China will be in the range of 4950-5150 yuan/ton.

PS

I. Focus Points

1, 3/3: Concerns over the US imposing additional tariffs, which could drag down the global economy and demand, coupled with uncertainty about whether OPEC+ will delay its production increase plan, have led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures April contract fell by $1.39 to $68.37 per barrel, a decrease of -1.99%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures May contract fell by $1.19 to $71.62 per barrel, a decrease of -1.63%. The main contract of China's INE crude oil futures 2504 fell by 3.3 to 539.2 yuan per barrel, and further dropped by 12.7 to 526.5 yuan per barrel during the night session.

Core Logic: The recovery speed of small and medium-sized downstream factories is slower than the supply, and the pressure on the industry to offload goods remains.

II. Price List

3. Market Outlook

The raw material styrene has stopped falling and is trading in a narrow range, with the cost direction unclear. The recovery speed of small and medium-sized downstream factories is slower than the supply, and there is still pressure on shipments within the industry. In the short term, the PS market may stabilize and observe, focusing mainly on shipments. It is expected that the transparent modified benzene in the East China market will be around 8,800-10,300 yuan/ton.

ABS

1. Focus Points

1. Crude Oil: On March 3rd, concerns over the US imposing additional tariffs, which could drag down the global economy and demand, coupled with uncertainty about whether OPEC+ will delay its production increase plan, led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract for April (04) fell by $1.39 per barrel to $68.37, a decrease of -1.99% compared to the previous period; the ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for May (05) dropped by $1.19 per barrel to $71.62, a decrease of -1.63%. The main contract for China's INE crude oil futures (2504) fell by 3.3 to 539.2 yuan per barrel, and during the night session, it decreased by 12.7 to 526.5 yuan per barrel.

2. Price List:

III. Market Outlook

The market prices in Dongguan increased yesterday, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand. The major oil regions have reduced their listed prices, but there were minor increases in some parts of the South China market. The East China market was slightly adjusted, and it is expected that the domestic ABS market prices will remain stable with slight adjustments today.

EVA

I. Points of Concern

1. 3/3: Concerns over additional US tariffs potentially dragging down the global economy and demand, coupled with uncertainties about whether OPEC+ will delay its production increase plan, led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEXCrude Oil Futures April contract fell by $1.39 per barrel to $68.37, a decrease of -1.99%; the ICE Brent crude futures May contract fell by $1.19 per barrel to $71.62, a decrease of -1.63%. The main contract of China's INE crude oil futures 2504 fell by 3.3 to 539.2 yuan per barrel, and further dropped by 12.7 to 526.5 yuan per barrel during the night session.

2, Ethylene: From the current market situation, the quotations from the production enterprises are continuously setting new low records. This situation has further intensified the wait-and-see attitude of downstream enterprises, making the market trading atmosphere more cautious and hesitant. Against this backdrop, there is a possibility for the negotiated prices in the market to rebound. Analyzing the US dollar market, the pressure on the supply side in the short term cannot be effectively relieved. Moreover, the demand for shipments remains strong. Overall, it is expected that prices may remain stable at high levels. The transaction range is expected to be maintained between 7600-7700 yuan/ton; the US dollar market is expected to rise to 900-910 dollars/ton.

Vinyl Acetate: The vinyl acetate market is undergoing range consolidation, with the supply end's operating load remaining stable, and production orders being shipped. The amount of available spot goods in the market is relatively small, and the negotiation focus continues to be on the higher end. Based on the expectation of supply contraction, industry players' mentality is firm, paying close attention to changes in the operating load of downstream enterprises and the production scheduling of some facilities. It is expected that the market trend will continue to consolidate at a high level recently.

Core Logic: There is an upward expectation for the cost of ethylene and vinyl acetate, which provides support from the cost side. With strong support from the domestic EVA supply side, the market may maintain a firm consolidation trend.

II. Price List

III. Market Outlook

In the short term, the supply side is strongly supported by the robust output from petrochemical factories. The supply of photovoltaic materials is tight, and demand is strong in the short term. Downstream foam demand revolves around essential needs, with some resistance to high-priced goods. Merchants are very cautious, and it is expected that the domestic EVA market will mainly remain firm. Mainstream market prices: rigid materials will fluctuate between 11,300-11,700 yuan/ton, flexible materials may fluctuate between 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic materials will fluctuate between 11,600-12,000 yuan/ton.