[Plasticizer Weekly Outlook] Market Expected To Continue Weakness

Product Name

6November 11

6December 12th

Rise (+) Fall (-)

DOP

North China and Shandong (Self-pickup)

8900-9050

8900-9050

0/0

East China (Self Pickup)

9150-9200

9050-9150

-100/-50

South China (Delivery nearby)

9200-9250

9200-9250

0/0

8200

8200

0/0

Neighbor phthalic anhydride

8700-8750

8700

0/-50

PVC

4510-4650

4510-4650

0/0

Market Focus:

1.6On Friday the 12th, multiple sources said that the United States and Iran were close to reaching a peace agreement. Rising market optimism over an easing of geopolitical tensions put pressure on oil prices, and international crude prices closed lower.。

2.Last Friday, PVC futures rebounded narrowly, while spot market prices were generally stable, with some markets still seeing adjustments. Transaction prices remained relatively chaotic, mainly negotiated on a case-by-case basis. PVC producers’ offers were mostly stable, while some companies continued to suspend quotations. Downstream demand remained weak, with buyers mainly purchasing low-priced goods on an as-needed basis, and a wait-and-see sentiment persisted. Supported by the rebound in futures, PVC spot market prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.。

Morning reminder:

Last Friday, the Jinlianchuang DOP price index stood at 9,123. Octanol feedstock prices remained stable, but shipments were mediocre, weakening support for DOP costs. Downstream demand showed no improvement, and purchases of DOP remained on a just-needed basis. DOP merchants continued to face pressure and were still actively shipping goods at this stage, with some price concessions appearing. Demand is expected to remain weak, and while DOP merchants are prioritizing shipments, there is still room for further concessions. However, given constrained profit realization, the market is basically expected to maintain a weak and slightly declining trend. As of last Friday’s close, the North China and Shandong markets8900-9050East China market: RMB 9,050-9,150/ton, ex-warehouse; South China market: RMB 9,200-9,300/ton, delivered to surrounding areas.

Last Friday, the domestic DBP market remained stable and firm, with downstream purchases based on demand. The price of raw butanol has seen an upward trend, providing stronger cost support for the DBP industry. Additionally, some DBP production facilities have reduced output, leading to a tighter supply of spot goods, which has contributed to a certain degree of price maintenance sentiment among sellers. It is expected that the DBP market will operate steadily with a slight upward trend in the short term. Last Friday's closing prices were around 8,350 yuan/ton for self-pickup in the Henan market, and the mainstream prices in the Shandong and Hebei markets ranged from 8,400 to 8,650 yuan/ton for self-pickup.

Last Friday, the domestic DOTP market saw its center of gravity move lower, with poor trading of new orders. Weak demand remained difficult to improve, while supply in the DOTP industry was ample. As traders focused on actively moving cargoes, price concessions were seen. However, at this stage, raw material 2-ethylhexanol remained stable and cost pressure in the industry persisted, limiting the extent of the market decline. Overall, prices edged down. The DOTP market is expected to remain sluggish in the short term. As of last Friday’s close, mainstream indications were RMB 8,950-9,000/mt ex-works in Shandong and North China, RMB 8,950-9,100/mt ex-works in East China, and around RMB 9,100/mt delivered to surrounding areas in South China.