This week's polyethylene factory price trend fluctuation

This week, the factory prices of polyethylene showed a mix of increases and decreases, with a range of 50-300 yuan/ton. By type, the factory prices of HDPE showed a mix of increases and decreases, with a range of 50-200 yuan/ton; in particular, the factory price of grade 100 pipe materials increased due to tight supply. The factory prices of LDPE decreased, with a range of 150-300 yuan/ton. The factory prices of LLDPE also decreased, with a range of 50-200 yuan/ton.

2. This weekmarket review

This week, the domestic polyethylene spot market prices mainly declined, with a range of 20-400 yuan/ton. The imbalance in market supply and demand continued this week, with a slow recovery in demand, making it difficult to effectively absorb the pressure from the supply side. Some production enterprises lowered their ex-factory prices, further weakening market confidence. Traders generally faced pressure and reduced prices to promote sales, leading to a general decline in market prices. Currently, the mainstream price for oil-based linear products in North China is 7900 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from last week; in East China, the mainstream price for oil-based linear products is 8100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; in South China, the mainstream price for oil-based linear products is 8050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week.

3. Polyethylene market forecast

Looking at the trend of raw materials for next week, it is expected that the cost support from oil-based production will strengthen, while the cost support from coal-based production will remain largely unchanged; it is estimated that the overall operating rate of the downstream industries of PE will increase by 0.88%. The demand for polyethylene downstream will slightly follow up, and at the same time, large-scale enterprises' regular finished goods inventory restocking for production needs, indicating there is still a possibility of an increase in operations. Considering the supply situation, maintenance facilities of Wanhua Chemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, Guangdong Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical are scheduled to restart next week, with additional short-term planned maintenance facilities including Zhongan United and Shanghai Petrochemical. It is estimated that the impact of maintenance on production volume next week will be 68,600 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons compared to this week. The total production for next week is estimated to be 586,300 tons, a reduction of 16,400 tons compared to this week. In summary, although the growth rate of supply is lower than expected, the recovery of downstream demand is slow, and inventory digestion is sluggish, leading to an expectation that the price of polyethylene may fluctuate weakly next week, with a fluctuation range of 50-100 yuan/ton.