[PE Weekly Outlook] Polyethylene Prices Expected to Fluctuate Within a Range This Week

Focus Points

1 Cost side: The market continues to focus on this Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, fearing the introduction of a new production increase plan, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $1.61 per barrel to $61.87, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract fell by $1.49 per barrel to $65.50, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the previous period. 。

2 Current parking device: Currently, the parking devices involve 30 sets of polyethylene units, with additional maintenance for Sino-Korean Petrochemical, Sino-British Petrochemical, and Tarim Petrochemical units.

3 Yesterday's Market Review: On the previous day, domestic polyethylene market prices mostly declined, with decreases ranging from 1 to 10 yuan per ton. The market speculation atmosphere cooled down, coupled with a weakening linear market trend, a decline in market sentiment, and a slow improvement in downstream order situations, leading to a loosening of polyethylene prices.

Core logic: The supply and demand margin remains stable, and prices fluctuate within a range. 。

II. Price List

3. Market Outlook

This week, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Key points of focus include: 1. Cost aspect. Oil-based production cost support is expected to weaken, while coal-based production cost support remains relatively unchanged; 2. Supply aspect. Market supply involves plans to restart units at Maoming Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical, with additional maintenance plans for units at Sinopec SK, Sino-Korean Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical, leading to an overall expected increase. The total production for this week is estimated at 652,600 tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from last week; 3. Demand aspect. This week, the overall operating rate of downstream PE industries is expected to increase by 1.43%, with demand gradually improving and market trading atmosphere slightly enhanced. Some packaging product restocking has begun, and the agricultural film market has entered a stocking cycle, with company orders gradually accumulating, indicating an expected improvement in production levels. In summary, the fundamental supply and demand are both increasing, with macroeconomic uncertainties present, and prices may fluctuate within a range.

4. Data Calendar