[PE Weekly Outlook] Expected To Trend Downward With Fluctuations

I. Points of Attention

1 Cost side: The situation between Israel and Palestine continues to ease, coupled with the ongoing U.S. tariff issues that may still pose new risks, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract fell by $2.61 per barrel to $58.90, down 4.24% month-on-month; ICE Brent crude futures for the December contract fell by $2.49 per barrel to $62.73, down 3.82% month-on-month. 。

2 Current parking device: Currently, the parking facilities involve 29 sets of polyethylene units, with no new units under maintenance.

3 Yesterday's Market Review: On the previous day, domestic polyethylene market prices mostly fell, with a range of 1-4 yuan per ton. Last week, polyethylene spot market prices declined. After the holiday, cost support weakened and market supply increased, leading to inventory accumulation during the holiday. Market sentiment was bearish, and traders actively offered discounts to sell. Despite being peak season, there has been no feedback from the demand side, putting pressure on the market to decline.

Core logic: Slow inventory depletion, prices running weakly.

2. Price List Form

3. Market Outlook

It is expected that this week Dushanzi Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Shanghai Petrochemical have new maintenance plans. Within the month, ExxonMobil's high-pressure unit and Guangxi Petrochemical are about to start production, leading to an anticipated increase in supply. On the demand side, the phenomenon of a lackluster peak season has become the norm in the industry, with post-holiday demand showing a scattered pattern, making it difficult to see a concentrated surge. After the holiday, there is an expectation of inventory buildup in the market, which may lead to a strategy of trading price for volume, putting pressure on prices, likely resulting in a mainly volatile and downward trend.

4. Data Calendar