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[PE Weekly Outlook] Downstream demand recovery is sluggish; it is expected that PE prices may fluctuate at the bottom this week.

Longzhong 2025-03-24 08:31:48

I. Focus Points

1、cost end:The market believes that the Asian economy and demand are expected to improve, and the instability in the Middle East still brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEXSwitch month 05 contract 68.28 up 0.21 USD/barrel, MoM +0.31%; ICE Brent crude futures 05 contract 72.16 up 0.16 USD/barrel, MoM +0.22%.

2current parking equipment:Currently, the parking equipment involves 25 sets of polyethylene equipment, with no new equipment under maintenance.

3last week's market review:The domestic polyethylene spot market price fell on the previous day, with a decline of 6-17 yuan/ton. The imbalance in market supply and demand continued last week, with a slow recovery in demand, making it difficult to effectively bear the pressure from the supply side. Some production enterprises lowered their ex-factory prices, further weakening market confidence. Merchants generally faced pressure and offered discounts to sell, leading to a mainly downward trend in market prices.

core logicSpot price fluctuates.

II. Price List

Market Outlook

This week, from the perspective of raw material trends, it is expected that the cost support for oil-based production will strengthen, while the cost support for coal-based production will remain largely unchanged; it is estimated that the overall operating rate of various downstream industries for PE will increase by 0.88%. The demand for polyethylene from downstream sectors has slightly increased, and at the same time, large-scale enterprises' regular finished product inventory restocking needs suggest that there may still be room for an increase in operations. Considering the supply situation, this week, maintenance units of Wanhua Chemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, Guangdong Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical are restarting, with additional short-term planned maintenance units including Zhongan United and Shanghai Petrochemical. It is estimated that the impact of maintenance on production this week will be 68.6 thousand tons, a decrease of 44 thousand tons compared to last week. The total production for this week is estimated to be 586.3 thousand tons, a reduction of 16.4 thousand tons compared to last week. Overall, although the growth in supply is below expectations, the recovery of downstream demand is sluggish, and inventory digestion is slow, leading to an expectation that the price of polyethylene may fluctuate at the bottom this week.

Four, Data Calendar

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[PE Weekly Outlook] Downstream demand recovery is sluggish; it is expected that PE prices may fluctuate at the bottom this week.

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