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[pe morning brief] limited supply and demand improvement, market gains constrained

Longzhong 2025-08-08 08:40:44

I. Points of Attention

1 Cost side: OPEC+ The bearish sentiment of increased production continues, coupled with the fact that the U.S. sanctions plan has not yet caused significant concerns, resulting in six consecutive declines in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.47/barrel to $63.88, a decrease of 0.73% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the October contract fell by $0.46/barrel to $66.43, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the previous period.

2 The current parking device: Currently, parking devices involve 23 sets of polyethylene units, with new inspections at Qilu Petrochemical, Yulong Petrochemical, and Liaoyang Petrochemical units.

3 Yesterday's Market Review: The previous day, the domestic polyethylene market saw mixed price fluctuations, ranging from 2 to 13 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers remained resistant to high prices, causing some traders to concede slightly in pricing due to hindered sales, and market transactions have not yet increased significantly.

Core Logic: Cost support loosens, supply and demand game. Market gains are limited.

2. Price List Form

Variety

Category

2025/8/6

2025/8/7

Change in value

Change in Price Percentage

HDPE

Low-pressure film material

7961  

7961

0  

0.00%

HDPE

Low-pressure low-melting injection molding material

7648

7636

-12

-0.16%

HDPE

Low-pressure drawing material

7987

7983

-4

-0.05%

HDPE

Low-pressure small hollow material

7613

7613

0

0.00%

LDPE

High voltage film material

9525

9538

13

0.14%

LLDPE

Linear Melt Index 2 Film Material

7415

7413

-2

-0.03%

Data Source: Longzhong Information

3. Market Outlook

The amount of maintenance has decreased, and production has increased month-on-month; downstream operations have slightly improved, while sentiment remains cautious and resistant to high prices. There is uncertainty in macroeconomic boosts, so overall, the marginal improvement in supply and demand is limited, and market gains are restricted.

4. Data Calendar

Data

Release Date

Previous data

Next trend forecast

PE Total Inventory of Manufacturing Enterprises (10,000 tons)

Wednesday 5:00 PM

51.54

PE Social Sample Warehouse Inventory

Tuesday 5:00 PM

2.49%

PE Weekly Output (10,000 tons)

Thursday 5:00 PM

66.02

PE Maintenance Impact Volume (10,000 tons)

Thursday 5:00 PM

7.87

PE Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate

Thursday, 5:00 PM

85.72%

PE Downstream Industry Capacity Utilization Rate

Thursday 5:00 PM

0.39%

PE Mindset Survey

Thursday 12:00 AM

-0.99%

↗↘

Data source: Longzhong Information

Note:

1 Consider significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with price changes exceeding 3%.

2 Considered as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise and fall range within 0-3%.

 

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