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[pe morning brief] fundamental changes below expectations, market gains limited

Longzhong 2025-08-13 08:28:26

I. Points of Focus

1 On the cost side: The market continues to focus on the meeting between the US and Russian leaders, with geopolitical tensions expected to further ease, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.79 per barrel to $63.17, a decrease of 1.24% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the October contract fell by $0.51 per barrel to $66.12, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous period.

2 Current parking device: Currently, the parking facilities involve 19 sets of polyethylene units, with the newly added Fushun Petrochemical unit under maintenance.

3 Yesterday's Market Review: The previous day, the domestic polyethylene market prices increased by 4-43 yuan/ton. The market was boosted by macroeconomic positives, but with limited fundamental support. Downstream buyers resisted high prices, and there was no significant increase in transactions.

Core Logic: The fundamentals have changed less than expected. Market gains are limited.

2. Price List Form

Variety

Category

2025/8/11

2025/8/12

Change in value

Price Change Percentage

HDPE

Low-pressure film material

7961  

7973

12  

0.15%

HDPE

Low-pressure low-melting injection molding plastic

7627

7631

4

0.05%

HDPE

Low-pressure wire drawing material

7978

7988

10

0.13%

HDPE

Low-pressure small hollow material

7608

7617

9

0.12%

LDPE

High-pressure film material

9561

9604

43

0.45%

LLDPE

Linear Melt Index 2 Film Material

7412

7427

15

0.20%

Data Source: Longzhong Information

3. Market Outlook

The number of driving devices is increasing, and supply is expected to grow. Downstream operations have slightly improved, with most maintaining just-in-time purchasing. Due to uncertainties in macroeconomic stimulus, overall, the fundamental changes fall short of expectations, limiting market gains.

4. Data Calendar

Data

Publication Date

Previous Data

Next trend forecast

PE Total Inventory of Manufacturing Enterprises (10,000 tons)

Wednesday 5:00 PM

51.54

PE Social Sample Warehouse Inventory

Tuesday 5:00 PM

2.49%

PE Weekly Production (Ten Thousand Tons)

Thursday 5:00 PM

66.02

PE Maintenance impact (10,000 tons)

Thursday 5:00 PM

7.87

PE Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate

Thursday 5:00 PM

85.72%

PE Downstream industry capacity utilization rate

Thursday 5:00 PM

0.39%

PE Mindset Survey

Thursday 12:00 AM

-0.99%

↗↘

Data source: Longzhong Information

Remark:

1 Consider large fluctuations as significant, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.

2 View as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise or fall range within 0-3%.

 

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