1today's summary

①、3/21: The market believes that the Asian economy and demand are expected to improve, and the instability in the Middle East still brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for May contract rose by $0.21 per barrel to $68.28, a month-on-month increase of +0.31%; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May contract increased by $0.16 per barrel to $72.16, a month-on-month increase of +0.22%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2505 rose by 9.3 to 531.3 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose by 4.4 to 535.7 yuan per barrel.

②、Today's HDPE market price dropped, with a range of 3-20 yuan/ton; LDPE market price dropped, with a range of 25 yuan/ton; LLDPE market price dropped, with a range of 14 yuan/ton.

2spot overview

Table 1 Domestic Polyethylene Closing Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Today, the domestic polyethylene spot market prices have fallen. International crude oil prices have maintained an upward trend, and there is a possibility of tighter market resources at the end of the month. Coinciding with the beginning of the week, downstream factories are expected to stock up, leading to a slight improvement in market sentiment. The main focus is on digesting the decline, and it is difficult for transactions to increase significantly. HDPE market prices have decreased by 3-20 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices have decreased by 25 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices have decreased by 14 yuan/ton.

3futures-spot basis

LL main contract fluctuated and rose, opening at 7654 yuan/ton. As of 15:00, the closing price was 7735 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan/ton from the previous settlement day's settlement price, with a trading volume of 340,400 lots and an open interest of 448,300 lots, a decrease of 41,790 lots. Today's spot-futures basis is 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

4production dynamics

Polyethylene capacity utilization increased from 81.15% to 83.84%, a month-on-month increase of 2.69%. Today, the Daqing Petrochemical HDPE plant and Shanghai Jinfen HDPE plant were restarted after maintenance, while new maintenance was added for the Dushanzi Petrochemical New Full Density Line 1 and Inner Mongolia Baofeng Full Density Line 1. The oil-based production cost is 8048 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day; the oil-based profit is -98 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous working day; the coal-based profit is 1763 yuan/ton, an increase of 109 yuan/ton from the previous working day.

5market sentiment

Table 2 Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners' Sentiment Expectations

6price prediction

In the short term, in terms of cost, the relatively firm crude oil prices provide some support to PE costs; in terms of supply, with some enterprises undergoing maintenance, the market supply pressure has been somewhat relieved; in terms of demand, although there has been an increase in the overall downstream operations of PE, the follow-up demand is limited, mainly driven by restocking based on rigid needs. Overall, the improvement in supply and demand is not significant, and it is expected that the polyethylene price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range tomorrow.

7related product information

crude oil market:In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positive factors come from the OPEC+ production cut atmosphere still present in March, the US strengthening sanctions on Iran, and the increased instability of geopolitical situations, while the negative factor is Trump's new tariff policy dragging down demand expectations and the strength of the US dollar. Recently, the increase in geopolitical instability represented by the situation in the Middle East has raised market concerns about potential supply risks, and it is expected that today's international crude oil prices will show an upward trend.