[PE Daily Review] Supply and Demand Pressure Eases, Prices Rebound

1. Today's Summary

①、 The traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the United States continues to provide positive support, and uncertainties remain in the Russia-Ukraine situation, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures switch to October contract at $63.52, up $0.81 per barrel, a 1.29% increase compared to the previous period; ICE Brent oil futures October contract at $67.67, up $0.83 per barrel, a 1.24% increase compared to the previous period. 。

②、 The price fluctuation range of the HDPE market is 0-1 yuan/ton, the LDPE market price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE market price increased by 16 yuan/ton.

2. Overview of Spot Market

Macroeconomic factors are boosting market sentiment, cost-side support is strengthening, fundamental pressure is not significant, market sentiment is improving, and traders are mostly making small price increases, with transactions being fairly good. The price fluctuation range of HDPE in the market is 0-1 yuan/ton, the market price of LDPE has increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the market price of LLDPE has increased by 16 yuan/ton.

3 Spot-Futures Basis

The main LL contract fluctuated within a range, opening at 7,378 yuan/ton. As of 15:00, the closing price was 7,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan compared to the previous settlement day's settlement price. The trading volume was 225,700 lots, and the open interest was 394,200 lots. Today's futures-spot basis was -150 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

4 Production Status

Capacity utilization rate is determined by 77.27% changed to 76.75%. Oil-based production cost is 7,626 RMB/ton; oil-based production profit is -326 RMB/ton; coal-based production profit is 893 RMB/ton.

5 Market sentiment

Table 2. Sentiment and Expectations of Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

6. Price Forecast

In the short term, Recently, the number of parking and maintenance units has increased, easing supply pressure. However, some units are scheduled to restart soon, so supply may slightly recover. Downstream factories are chasing the price increase and restocking, but the operating rate is rising slowly, and the momentum of continuous restocking remains to be seen. The positive macro factors are gradually being digested, and cost-side support is unstable. Expected Next week, polyethylene prices will mainly experience narrow fluctuations. 。

7. Related Products Information

Crude Oil Market: The main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positive factors come from the continuation of U.S. sanctions on oil-producing countries and the extension of the traditional U.S. consumption peak season, while the negative factor is the easing of geopolitical tensions compared to the previous period. OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production and the global economy remains sluggish. Today, market attention may shift to the latest developments in the Israel-Palestine peace talks and the situation in Iran. There is still a sense of easing in terms of geopolitics, and it is expected that... Tomorrow International oil prices will show Decline situation

8. Data Calendar

Table 3   Domestic Polyethylene Data Overview Table (Unit: 10,000 tons)