[PE Daily Review] Narrow Price Fluctuations Supported by Downstream Rigid Demand

1. Today's Summary

OPEC+'s planned production increase for October is relatively moderate, and the risk of U.S. sanctions against some oil-producing countries remains, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for October settled at $62.26 per barrel, up $0.39 or 0.63% week-on-week; ICE Brent crude oil futures for November settled at $66.02 per barrel, up $0.52 or 0.79% week-on-week.

②、 The price change range in the HDPE market is -4 to 3 yuan/ton, in the LDPE market -2 yuan/ton, and in the LLDPE market -1 yuan/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1   Domestic Polyethylene Closing Price Summary Table (Unit: Yuan) /ton)

Support from the raw material side remains, and production enterprises have increased maintenance of equipment, resulting in a reduction in output. However, downstream peak season orders have not been fulfilled, leading to weakened market confidence. Today's transactions are maintained at just-needed levels. The market price change for HDPE is -4 to 3 yuan/ton, for LDPE is -2 yuan/ton, and for LLDPE is -1 yuan/ton.

3 translates to "spot-futures basis" in English.

The LL main contract fluctuated downward, opening at 7,248 yuan/ton and closing at 7,229 yuan/ton by 15:00, remaining stable compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 165,800 lots, and the open interest was 518,000 lots. Today's futures-spot basis was 7,150 yuan/ton, compared to the previous working day's +7,261 yuan/ton.

4 Production Dynamics

Capacity utilization rate from The percentage changed from 78.25% to 78.17%. The cost of oil-based production is 7,452 yuan/ton; the oil-based profit is -202 yuan/ton; the coal-based profit is 962 yuan/ton.

Graph 3   Domestic Polyethylene Capacity Utilization Trend	Figure 4   Comparison of Domestic Polyethylene Profit and Price (Yuan) /ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5 Market sentiment

Table 2 Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Industry Participants' Sentiment and Expectations

6. Price Prediction

In the short term, On the supply side, inventory pressure is easing. On the demand side, downstream gradually enters the traditional peak season, but downstream enterprises still have certain inventory, and order growth is not significant, mainly maintaining rigid demand. Therefore, it is expected that the polyethylene market will experience narrow fluctuations tomorrow. 。

7. Relevant Product Information

Crude Oil Market: The main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The bullish factors include the continuation of U.S. sanctions policy on oil-producing countries and uncertainties in geopolitical situations, while the bearish factors are OPEC+ maintains its stance on production increases, and the global economy remains weak. The production increase by OPEC+ is smaller than expected, providing limited suppression to oil prices. Currently, the situation between the United States and Venezuela, as well as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, remains unstable. Geopolitical tensions have strengthened support for oil prices, and it is expected that... Bright International oil prices are expected to show a slight upward trend.

8. Data Calendar

Table 3   Domestic Polyethylene Data Overview Table (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)