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[pe daily review] market sentiment weakens, price center of gravity slightly shifts downward

Longzhong 2025-08-01 16:55:06

1. Today's Summary

OPEC+ may continue to significantly increase production in September, leading traders to take profits and causing international oil prices to fall. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.74/barrel to $69.26, a decrease of 1.06% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the September contract fell by $0.71/barrel to $72.53, a decrease of 0.97% compared to the previous period.

②、 The HD PE market price change range is -5 to -6 yuan/ton, the LDPE market price is -1 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE market price is -7 yuan/ton.

2. Spot Overview

Macro messages have been gradually digested, with no further boost, and support from the cost side has weakened. The spot market is relatively well-supplied, with slight concessions made to facilitate transactions, leading to a downward shift in price focus and weak trading. Currently, the market is driven by macro sentiment, with a relatively strong mentality. However, from a fundamental perspective, there is no significant improvement in supply, and pressure remains, while the demand side is recovering slowly, making it difficult to generate effective upward momentum. Therefore, a slight consolidation is expected to be the main trend. The HDPE market price fluctuated by -5 to 6 yuan/ton, the LDPE market price by -1 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE market price by -7 yuan/ton.

3 ========: Basis

The main LL contract fluctuated downward, opening at 7,344 yuan/ton. By 15:00, the closing price was 7,317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 220,500 contracts, and the open interest was 313,100 contracts, a decrease of 13,800 contracts. Today's futures-spot basis was -97 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

4 Production Dynamics

Capacity utilization rate by The change from 80.38% to 82.59%. The cost of oil production is 8035 yuan/ton; the profit from oil production is -685 yuan/ton; the profit from coal production is 1010 yuan/ton.

Graph 3 Domestic Polyethylene Capacity Utilization Trend	Graph 4 Comparison of Domestic Polyethylene Profit and Price (Yuan) /ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5 Market sentiment

Table Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

Date	Bearish	Bullish	Steady look
This week	26.7%	15.8%	57.4%
Last week	32.2%	5.0%	62.9%
Rise and fall	-5.5%	10.9%	-5.4%
Data Source: Longzhong Information
Note: The above data is updated every Thursday.

6. Price Forecast

Short-term During the off-season, the rebound in demand is limited, and downstream purchasing volume is not large, maintaining only necessary demand. The impact of the news is gradually dissipating, and the market atmosphere is turning dull. Therefore Next week Polyethylene Market Price Fluctuating downward Mainly.

7. Related Product Information

Crude Oil Market: The main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positive factors come from the continuation of U.S. sanctions policies against oil-producing countries and the ongoing traditional peak consumption season in the U.S., while the negative factor is the easing of geopolitical tensions compared to earlier periods. OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production amid a weak global economy. Today, some economic data from Europe and the United States will be released in quick succession. Based on the expected values, they may still show signs of weakness. Coupled with the market's attention starting in early August on OPEC+'s production increase plan for September, it is anticipated that... Tomorrow International oil prices will show Decline Situation.

8. Data Calendar

Table 3 Domestic Polyethylene Data Overview Table (Unit: 10,000 Tons)

Data	Release Date	Previous Data	The trend for this period is expected
PE Production Enterprise Total Inventory (10,000 tons)	Wednesday 17:00PM	43.28	↘
PE Social Sample Warehouse Inventory	Tuesday 17:00PM	1.79%	↗
PE Weekly Production (10,000 tons)	Thursday 17:00PM	63.55	↗
PE Maintenance Impact Volume (10,000 tons)	Thursday 17:00PM	9.14	↘
PE Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate	Thursday 17:00PM	81.97%	↗
PE downstream industry capacity utilization rate	Thursday 17:00PM	0.31%	↗
PE Mindset Survey	Thursday 12:00AM	10.89%	↗
Data source: Longzhong Information Note: 1. Consider a significant fluctuation as a substantial rise or fall, highlighting data dimensions with a change exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ are considered narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise or fall within 0-3%. The above data is updated every Thursday.

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[pe daily review] market sentiment weakens, price center of gravity slightly shifts downward

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