Pe daily review: Market Offers Discounts and Inventory Decreases, Orders Show Improvement

1. Today's Summary

OPEC+ remains firm on its stance to increase production, and the market is still concerned about poor demand prospects, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $0.89 per barrel to $62.68, a decrease of 1.40% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract fell by $0.76 per barrel to $66.68, a decrease of 1.13% compared to the previous period.

②、 The HDPE market price fluctuation range is -14 to -2 yuan/ton, the LDPE market price is -11 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE market price. Flat 。

2. Spot Overview

Orders have improved, and factories have increased their stock, but there is no further macroeconomic boost. Supply is mainly increasing, companies are offering discounts to clear inventory, and prices are falling. The HDPE market price fluctuation ranges from -14 to -2 RMB/ton, the LDPE market price is -11 RMB/ton, and the LLDPE market price... Unchanged 。

3 ========: Spot-Futures Basis

The main LL contract fluctuated downward, opening at 7,169 yuan/ton. By 15:00, the closing price was 7,130 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement day's settlement price. The trading volume was 211,000 lots, and the open interest was 580,800 lots. Today's futures-spot basis was -30 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

4 Production Status

Capacity utilization rate== 82.93% changed to 81.55%. Oil-based production cost is 7493 yuan/ton; oil-based profit is -293 yuan/ton; coal-based profit is 498 yuan/ton.

Graph 3   Domestic Polyethylene Capacity Utilization Rate Trend	Graph 4   Domestic Polyethylene Profit and Price Comparison (Yuan (per ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5 Market sentiment

Table 2. Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

6. Price Prediction

In the short term, on the supply side, with the commissioning of new installations, the restart of previously repaired facilities, and an increase in import offers, supply pressure continues to intensify. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually improving, and some enterprises may engage in restocking before the holiday, leading to an increase in raw material demand. Overall, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range tomorrow.

7. Related Product Information

Crude Oil Market: The main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positives stem from the continuation of U.S. sanctions policies against oil-producing countries and uncertainties in geopolitical situations, while the negatives are OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production amid a weak global economy. The instability of geopolitical situations such as Russia-Ukraine persists, and new uncertainties have emerged in Iran, continuing potential supply risks. It is expected that international oil prices will show an upward trend today.

8. Data Calendar

Table 3   Domestic Polyethylene Data Overview Table (Unit: 10,000 tons)