[PE Daily Review] Market Confidence Weakens, Low-Price Transactions Dominate

1. Today's Summary

The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to raise market concerns about potential supply risks, coupled with the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts, leading to an increase in international oil prices. Crude oil futures The October contract rose by $1.22/barrel to $64.52, a month-on-month increase of +1.93%; the ICE Brent crude futures November contract rose by $1.03/barrel to $68.47, a month-on-month increase of +1.53%.

②、 The market price of HDPE has changed by -1 to -3 yuan/ton, LDPE market price increased by 2 yuan/ton, and LLDPE market price decreased by 2 yuan/ton.

2. Spot Overview

The macroeconomic support has strengthened, but the operating conditions of downstream factories are below expectations, resulting in insufficient market confidence. Market offers have tentatively increased, with transactions mainly occurring at low prices. The HDPE market price fluctuated between -1 to +3 yuan/ton, the LDPE market price increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE market price decreased by 2 yuan/ton.

3 Spot-Futures Basis

The main contract of LL futures fluctuated upwards, opening at 7,199 yuan/ton. As of 15:00, the closing price was 7,232 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 264,000 contracts, and the open interest was 555,000 contracts. Today's futures-spot basis was -75 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

4 Production dynamics

The capacity utilization rate of The percentage changed from 80.4% to 79.5%. The oil-based production cost is 7,635 yuan/ton; the oil-based profit is -385 yuan/ton; the coal-based profit is 871 yuan/ton.

Figure 3   Trend of Domestic Polyethylene Capacity Utilization Rate	Figure 4   Comparison of Domestic Polyethylene Profit and Price (Yuan) (per ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5 Market sentiment

Table 2 Sentiment and Expectations of Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

6. Price Prediction

In the short term, with the National Day holiday approaching, downstream restocking activities have led to a slight increase in demand, which is still weaker than expected. On the supply side, recent domestic polyethylene supply has decreased, alleviating some pressure. Therefore, it is expected that polyethylene prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range tomorrow.

7. Information on Related Products

Crude Oil Market: The main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positive factors come from the continuation of U.S. sanctions on oil-producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, while the negative factors are... OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, and the global economy is underperforming. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, raising market concerns about a potential short-term reduction in Russian oil supply. Coupled with the instability in the Israel-Palestine situation, it is expected that international oil prices will show an upward trend tomorrow.

8. Data Calendar

Table 3   Domestic Polyethylene Data Overview Table (Unit: 10,000 tons)