[pe daily review] macroeconomic support strengthens, market trading improves

1. Today's Summary

① The market doubts the actual effectiveness of the new U.S. sanctions on Russia, coupled with ongoing weak demand, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the December contract fell $0.29 per barrel to $61.50, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47%; ICE Brent crude futures for the December contract fell $0.05 per barrel to $65.94, a month-on-month decrease of 0.08%.

②、 The price change range in the HDPE market is -7 to -6 yuan/ton, the LDPE market price is -2 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE market price is +3 yuan/ton.

2. Spot Overview

The rise in crude oil prices has led to stronger cost support for polyethylene. Coupled with recent favorable macroeconomic factors, sentiment among industry players has improved. Sellers' offers are relatively firm, and the atmosphere for low-priced transactions in the market is acceptable. However, downstream buyers are still primarily replenishing inventory as needed and are resistant to high prices. The HDPE market price change range is -7 to -6 yuan/ton, the LDPE market price is -2 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE market price is +3 yuan/ton.

3 Spot-futures basis

The LL main contract fluctuated upward, opening at 6,969 yuan/ton. By 15:00, the closing price was 7,024 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement day's settlement price. The trading volume was 241,400 lots, and the open interest was 523,900 lots. Today's futures-to-spot price spread was -64 yuan/ton, compared to the previous working day's -25 yuan/ton.

4 Production Dynamics

Capacity utilization rate by 82.49% changed to 82.37%. Oil-based production cost is 7,439 yuan/ton; oil-based profit is -399 yuan/ton; coal-based profit is 195 yuan/ton.

Figure 3   Domestic Polyethylene Capacity Utilization Trend	Figure 4   Domestic polyethylene profit and price comparison (yuan (Per ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5 Market sentiment

Table Expectations of Sentiment Among Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

6. Price Prediction

In terms of cost, the rise in international crude oil prices has somewhat strengthened the cost support for polyethylene. The supply side is under pressure mainly due to the reduced scale of maintenance of petrochemical production facilities, while imported goods are arriving concentratedly at ports, leading to an expected increase in market supply. On the demand side, the overall performance is average, with only a few areas such as agricultural film in the production peak season showing some support, while order follow-ups in other downstream industries are generally moderate, with raw material procurement mostly based on rigid demand, providing limited overall support. Considering these aspects, although recent positive signals at the macro level have slightly boosted market sentiment, the supply-demand fundamentals indicate limited room for price increases, and it is expected that polyethylene market prices will fluctuate slightly, with the extent of fluctuation being. 20-50 yuan/ton.

7. Related Product Information

Crude Oil Market: In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positives come from the continuation of U.S. sanctions policies on oil-producing countries and the uncertainty of geopolitical situations, while the negatives are OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production amidst a weak global economy and demand. The progress in trade talks between the United States and China over the past weekend has positively influenced market expectations regarding demand prospects. It is expected that international oil prices will show an upward trend tomorrow.

8. Data Calendar

Table 3   Domestic Polyethylene Data Overview Table (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)