[pe daily review] macroeconomic policy support, prices mainly rise slightly

1 Today's Summary

①. 8/25: Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities continue, and the instability of the Russia-Ukraine situation brings potential supply risks, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEXCrude oil futuresOctober contract at $64.80, up $1.14 per barrel, a 1.79% increase month-on-month; ICE Brent crude futures October contract at $68.80, up $1.07 per barrel, a 1.58% increase month-on-month. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2510 rose 2.5 to 493.5 yuan per barrel, and increased by 5.7 in night trading to 499.2 yuan per barrel.

②、 The HDPE market price fluctuated by -5 to 6 RMB/ton, the LDPE market price increased by 17 RMB/ton, and the LLDPE market price increased by 11 RMB/ton.

2 Spot Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic Polyethylene Closing Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Today, the spot market price of polyethylene in China fluctuated and rose. Influenced by guiding factors, the price of LLDPE products increased today. However, from the transaction perspective, some buyers remained cautious, causing the afternoon quotations to slightly retreat compared to earlier in the day. The price of HDPE products struggled to rise due to supply pressure, with most prices remaining stable and some individual transactions offering concessions. The price of LDPE products showed little overall change.

3 ======== translates to "futures-spot basis."

Futures Market Review: The main LL contract fluctuated weakly, opening at 7,427 yuan/ton and closing at 7,402 yuan/ton as of 15:00, which is 9 yuan lower than the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 249,000 lots, and the open interest was 407,600 lots. Today's futures-spot basis was -132 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

4 Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate changed from 79.28% to 79.99%. The cost of oil production is 7,693 yuan/ton; the profit from oil production is -393 yuan/ton; the profit from coal production is 990 yuan/ton.

Figure 3   Domestic Polyethylene Capacity Utilization Trend	Figure 4   Domestic Polyethylene Profit and Price Comparison (Yuan/Ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5 Market Sentiment

Table 2 Domestic Polyethylene Industry Participants' Sentiment Expectations

6 Price Forecast

In the short term, as the end of the month approaches, the supply of spot resources will decrease, and the pre-sale resources will increase. However, as we enter September, the peak season for downstream polyethylene consumption arrives, coupled with the recent strong price support intentions of enterprises, it is expected that market prices still have an upward trend. (Personal opinion, for reference only)

7 Related product information

Crude oilMarket: In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positive factors come from the continuation of U.S. sanctions policies on oil-producing countries and the continuation of the traditional U.S. consumption season. The negative factors include a relatively eased geopolitical situation compared to earlier, OPEC+ maintaining its stance on increasing production, and a sluggish global economy. Last weekend, the U.S. and the EU reached a preliminary trade agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the U.S. by $600 billion, and the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on the EU. The progress on U.S.-EU tariff issues has smoothly alleviated market concerns, and it is expected that international oil prices will show an upward trend today.

8 Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polyethylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)