1、Today's Summary

①, 3/4: The U.S. tariff policy has sparked potential trade dispute risks, coupled with OPEC+ planning a slight production increase from April, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract fell by $0.11 to $68.26 per barrel, down -0.16% month-over-month; ICE Brent crude futures 05 contract fell by $0.58 to $71.04 per barrel, down -0.81% month-over-month. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2504 fell by 7.7 to 531.5 yuan per barrel, and further dropped by 12.7 to 518.8 yuan per barrel during the night session.

②, Today, HDPE market prices slightly adjusted, with a range of 2-7 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices slightly decreased, with a range of 9 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices slightly decreased, with a range of 6 yuan/ton.

2、Spot Overview

Today, domestic polyethylene spot market prices were mixed. HDPE market prices mainly saw minor adjustments, with a range of 2-7 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices slightly decreased, with a range of 9 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices slightly decreased, with a range of 6 yuan/ton. Currently, market cost support has somewhat weakened, and the overall macroeconomic outlook is bearish, with no significant positive news on the horizon. Although there are no new pressures in the short term, the supply of spot goods is relatively ample, and the market as a whole is adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Traders are mostly following the market trend, with prices making narrow adjustments.

3、Futures-Spot Basis

The LLDPE main contract fluctuated downward, opening at 7896 yuan/ton. By 15:00, the closing price was 7878 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous settlement day, with a trading volume of 298,900 lots and an open interest of 484,300 lots, a decrease of 11,800 lots. Today's futures-spot basis is 182 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous working day.

4、Production Dynamics

Polyethylene capacity utilization rate fell from 86.25% to 86.04%, a decrease of 0.21%. No maintenance units were restarted today, but new maintenance was added for the second phase HDPE unit of Sino-Korean Petrochemical and the second phase LDPE unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical. Oil-based production costs were 7971 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous working day; oil-based profit was 229 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous working day; coal-based profit was 1841 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous working day.

5、Market Sentiment

6、Price Forecast

Today, price increases were concentrated in film and drawing categories where supply is slightly tight, while price decreases were concentrated in linear categories where supply is abundant, as well as in high-pressure products with higher prices. In the short term, after the Lantern Festival, new orders showed varying performances, and there is resistance to high-priced resources. Maintenance times are concentrated after April, and short-term social inventory levels have also risen. Considering sales progress, prices may see a slight decline.

7、Related Product Situation

Crude Oil Market: In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. Positive factors include the continued OPEC+ production cut atmosphere, increased U.S. sanctions on Iran, and improved demand prospects in Asia, while negative factors include Trump's new tariff policy, a strong dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions. The EIA inventory data to be released tonight is an important piece of information. Based on expectations, the decline in crude oil inventories may exceed expectations, providing a positive boost to the market. It is expected that international crude oil prices will show an upward trend today.

8、Data Calendar