1Today's summary

On March 3rd, the market is worried that the U.S. tariffs will drag down the global economy and demand, and it is uncertain whether OPEC+ can postpone its production increase plan, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for April fell by $1.39 to $68.37 per barrel, a decrease of 1.99%; ICE Brent crude futures for May fell by $1.19 to $71.62 per barrel, a decrease of 1.63%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract for 2504 fell by 3.3 to 539.2 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it fell by 12.7 to 526.5 yuan per barrel.

Today, the HDPE market price has increased by 1-13 yuan/ton; the LDPE market price has slightly decreased by 1 yuan/ton; the LLDPE market price has slightly decreased by 5 yuan/ton.

2Spot Overview

Today's domestic polyethylene spot market prices showed mixed trends. The HDPE spot market prices adjusted by 1-13 yuan per ton, with some upward adjustments influenced by news of maintenance and production conversion. However, the increase was limited. The LDPE spot market prices slightly decreased by 1 yuan per ton; although some low-end market resources were reduced, participants were not very enthusiastic about purchasing, leading to only slight fluctuations in overall market prices. The LLDPE spot market prices slightly decreased by 5 yuan per ton; in the short term, there was no new supply pressure, but spot supplies remained relatively abundant. Negative macroeconomic signals were released, resulting in more transactions at lower price points.

3Futures basis

The LL main contract fluctuated downwards, opening at 7,927 yuan/ton, and closing at 7,905 yuan/ton by 15:00, which is 10 yuan/ton lower than the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 251,200 contracts, and the open interest was 496,100 contracts, an increase of 12,300 contracts. Today's futures-spot basis is 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day's basis.

4Production Dynamics

Polyethylene capacity utilization rate fell from 88.48% to 86.25%, a decrease of 2.23% on a monthly basis. There is no resumption of maintenance equipment today, and there are additional shutdowns at the HDPE Phase II unit of Sino-Korean Petrochemical and HDPE equipment of a certain company in Tianjin. The oil-based cost is 8036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the oil-based profit is 164 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the coal-based profit is 1861 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.

5market sentiment

6Price Prediction

In the short term, although downstream demand is continuously increasing and production enterprises also have a trend of price support, the supply is expected to increase after the middle of the month with the full production of new capacity from Shandong Xinsidai and Inner Mongolia Baofeng. This might negatively impact the price increase. At that time, it is expected that the market price will fluctuate within a narrow range.

7, Related product information

Oil market:In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The bullish factors come from the continued production cut by OPEC+, the U.S. strengthening sanctions on Iran, and the improved demand outlook in Asia, while the bearish factors are Trump's tariff policies, a strong U.S. dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions. The U.S. has begun implementing tariff increases on multiple countries, raising concerns about demand, and the potential easing of sanctions on Russia could reduce supply risks. It is expected that international crude oil prices will fall today.

8Data Calendar