1 Today's Summary

On March 31, the United States indicated that it does not rule out the option of military action against Iran, raising market concerns about potential supply risks and leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEXCrude oil futuresThe 05 contract rose by $2.12 to $71.48/barrel, up 3.06% from the previous period. The ICE Brent crude futures 05 contract rose by $1.11 to $74.74/barrel, up 1.51% from the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures主力contract 2505 fell by 4.3 to 537.4 yuan/barrel, and rose by 16.5 to 553.9 yuan/barrel in night trading.

② Today's HDPE marketPrice adjustment range: 2-4 yuan/ton; LDPE market price decrease: 15 yuan/ton.LLDPE MarketThe price experienced a slight decline, with a decrease of 7 yuan per ton.

2 Current situation of spot market

Table 1 Summary of Domestic Polyethylene Closing Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Today, the domestic polyethylene spot market prices were mainly declining. At the beginning of the month, there was a strong intention to support prices, but the rapid accumulation of inventory by Sinopec and PetroChina made it difficult to boost trading volume, dampening confidence in pushing prices higher. Market participants were cautious, with merchants adjusting prices flexibly and focusing on digesting the declines. Although downstream procurement activity showed some improvement, most buyers remained resistant to price increases. HDPE market prices saw minor adjustments of 2-4 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices fell by 15 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices edged down by 7 yuan/ton.

3 Futures-Cash Basis

LL The main contract fluctuated upward, opening at 7,673 yuan per ton, and closed at 15:00 at 7,690 yuan per ton, an increase of 35 yuan per ton compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 280,200 lots, and the open interest was 412,500 lots, a decrease of 25,000 lots. Today's basis between futures and spot is 30 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan per ton from the previous working day.

4 Production Dynamics

The utilization rate of polyethylene capacity rose from 84.19% to 82.49%, a decrease of 1.70% compared to the previous period. There were no restarts of plants under maintenance today. Today, new maintenance began at Daqing Petrochemical's Line 1 full density plant, Liaoyang Petrochemical's HDPE Line B, and Sichuan Petrochemical's full density plant. The oil-based cost is 8,264 yuan per ton, an increase of 84 yuan per ton from the previous working day; the oil-based profit is -314 yuan per ton, a decrease of 84 yuan per ton from the previous working day; the coal-based profit is 1,688 yuan per ton, an increase of 45 yuan per ton from the previous working day.

5 Market sentiment

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6 Price Forecast

In the short term, with the approach of the Qingming Festival holiday, downstream factories will have replenishment behaviors, and the demand side still has some support. On the supply side, as the market trading atmosphere improved today, it is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will decrease significantly, alleviating inventory pressure. Overall, it is expected that the domestic polyethylene market prices will mainly fluctuate stronger tomorrow.

7 Relevant product information

Crude Oil Market: In the short term, the main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged. The positive factors include the OPEC+ production cut sentiment continuing into March, the U.S. intensifying sanctions on Iran, and increased instability in geopolitical situations. On the negative side, Trump's new tariff policy is expected to dampen demand forecasts, and the strength of the dollar also poses a downside. The U.S. sanctions on Russia and potential military actions against Iran may not materialize. Entering April, the risk of tariffs still worries traders. It is anticipated that international crude oil prices will likely show a downward trend today.

8 Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polyethylene Data (Unit: Million Tonnes)