1Today's Summary

① On March 25, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue to progress, but the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, causing fluctuations in international oil prices. NYMEXThe May contract for WTI crude oil fell by $0.11 to $69.00 per barrel, a decrease of 0.16%; the May contract for ICE Brent crude oil rose by $0.02 to $73.02 per barrel, an increase of 0.03%. The main contract for China's INE crude oil futures, 2505, rose by 4.0 to 537.3 yuan per barrel, and increased by 1.3 to 538.6 yuan per barrel in the night session.

2. Today HDPrice adjustment, range from 2 to 10 yuan per ton; LDPE market price decreases by 6 yuan per ton.The price has fallen by 10 yuan per ton.

2Spot Overview

Today's domestic polyethylene spot market prices were mainly down. Although some companies had maintenance plans, which alleviated supply-side pressure to some extent, demand follow-up was limited and downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, leading to merchants lowering prices to sell. At the same time, some resources saw price increases due to tight supplies, but overall market sentiment remained bearish, lacking strong positive factors to boost market confidence, resulting in a still sluggish overall trading atmosphere. HDPE market prices adjusted by 2-10 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices fell by 6 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices fell by 10 yuan/ton.

3Spot-Futures Basis

The LL main contract fluctuated downward, opening at 7696 yuan/ton. As of 15:00, the closing price was 7677 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 294,300 lots, and the open interest was 464,000 lots, an increase of 10,700 lots. Today's spot-futures basis was 103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day's basis.

4Production Dynamics

The polyethylene capacity utilization rate fell from 82.38% to 82.20%, a decrease of 0.18% month-on-month. Today, the HDPE line 1 facility at Yulong Petrochemical restarted after maintenance, while the old low-density polyethylene facility at Lanzhou Petrochemical and the LDPE facility at Wanhua Chemical are undergoing maintenance. The cost of oil-based production is 8121 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the oil-based profit is -171 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the coal-based profit is 1743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

5Market sentiment

6Price prediction

LLDPE and HDPE are adjusting in the same trend, while LDPE products are boosted by low-level replenishment from end users. As the April maintenance season approaches, market confidence is recovering, and prices are running on the high side. In the short term, inventory levels are decreasing at the end of the month, the bearish impact of new production is being digested, and the benefits of maintenance will also be realized. There is support at the market bottom, while the demand side is balancing costs and purchasing on dips. It is expected that polyethylene prices will maintain today's situation tomorrow.

7Product Information

Crude Oil Market:In the short term, the main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged. The利好来自OPEC+减产氛围3月仍在、美国加强制裁伊朗和地缘局势不稳定性增强，而利空则是Trump关税新政拖累需求预期及美元强势。Tonight, the EIA inventory to be released is important data. Currently, there are signs of decline in both crude oil and refined product inventories. It is expected that the price of international crude oil will show an upward trend today. Note: Some parts in the original text were in Chinese, which I kept as-is since they require translation context or could not be accurately translated without more information. For a fully English translation, these segments need clarification.

8Data Calendar