1 Today's Summary

On March 27, the U.S. extended sanctions on some oil-producing countries, raising market concerns about potential supply risks, which led to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for May contract rose by $0.27 to $69.92 per barrel, an increase of 0.39% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for May contract rose by $0.24 to $74.03 per barrel, an increase of 0.33%. The main contract for China's INE crude oil futures (2505) rose by 4.0 to 543.4 yuan per barrel, while it fell by 0.4 to 543 yuan per barrel in the night session.

Today, the HDPE market prices have dropped by 3-19 yuan/ton; the LDPE market prices have decreased by 5 yuan/ton; the LLDPE market prices are stable and unchanged compared to the previous working day.

2 Spot Overview

Today, the domestic polyethylene spot market prices have declined. The market lacks positive support, and pressure from the supply side still exists. Merchants have a bearish sentiment and maintain an active selling strategy. Downstream factories have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and purchasing enthusiasm is low, resulting in an overall weak market transaction trend, with no significant improvement expected in the short term. HDPE market prices dropped by 3-19 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices decreased by 5 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices remained stable compared to the previous working day.

3 Spot-Futures Basis

LL The main contract is in a range consolidation, opening at 7714 yuan/ton and closing at 7701 yuan/ton by 15:00, which is a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to the last settlement price. The trading volume was 286,300 lots, and the open interest was 450,300 lots, down by 10,600 lots. The basis for today’s spot futures is 49 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day's basis.

4 Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene increased from 80.94% to 81.22%, a month-on-month increase of 0.28%. Today, the HDPE line 1 unit at Yangzi Petrochemical has restarted after maintenance, and there are no new maintenance activities reported today. The oil-based cost is 8,214 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the oil-based profit is -264 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the coal-based profit is 1,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

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6 Price prediction

In the short term, the current inventory depletion status is basically in line with historical patterns. The overall maintenance situation is higher than the same period last year. Production enterprises have insufficient confidence in the market outlook and are actively lowering prices to promote transactions. The demand side has a strong basic need, but there is still a resistance to high prices, resulting in price fluctuations and declines. Therefore, in the short term, the polyethylene price is expected to trend weakly next week.

7 Related product situation

In the short term, the main trading logic of the international oil market has not changed. The bullish factors include the ongoing atmosphere of OPEC+ production cuts in March, increased U.S. sanctions against Iran, and heightened geopolitical instability. On the bearish side, Trump's tariff policies are dragging down demand expectations along with a strong U.S. dollar. Recently, the benefits from sanctions and geopolitical factors have nearly run their course, and the market's attention has shifted to the potential negative impact of U.S. tariff policies on demand. It is expected that international oil prices will show a downward trend today.

8 Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polyethylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)