1today's summary

①, 3/20: The US continues to strengthen sanctions against Iran, and the instability in the Middle East brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract for April rose by $1.10 per barrel to $68.26, up 1.64% month-over-month; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for May increased by $1.22 per barrel to $72.00, up 1.72% month-over-month. China's INE crude oil futures main contract for 2505 rose by 0.6 to 522 yuan per barrel, and the night session increased by 12.1 to 534.1 yuan per barrel.

②、Today's HDPE market price has decreased, with a range of 8-28 yuan/ton; LDPE market price has decreased, with a range of 22 yuan/ton; LLDPE market price has decreased, with a range of 18 yuan/ton.

2spot overview

Table 1 Domestic Polyethylene Closing Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Today, the domestic polyethylene spot market prices have fallen. International crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and market sentiment has slightly improved. However, with ample spot resources, traders are actively selling to offset the decline. Downstream demand remains limited, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is not high, resulting in no significant increase in transactions. There are insufficient positive factors on the market, making it difficult to push prices up, and the overall imbalance between supply and demand in the market continues. HDPE market prices have decreased by 8-28 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices have decreased by 22 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices have decreased by 18 yuan/ton.

3futures-spot basis

LL main contract fluctuated downward, opening at 7669 yuan/ton. As of 15:00, the closing price was 7655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from the previous settlement day's settlement price. The trading volume was 314,400 lots, and the open interest was 490,100 lots, a decrease of 29,000 lots. Today's basis was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

4production dynamics

Polyethylene capacity utilization rate increased from 80.97% to 81.15%, a month-on-month increase of 0.18%. There are no maintenance units restarting today, and there are no new units under maintenance. The cost of oil-based production is 8034 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the profit of oil-based production is -84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 164 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the profit of coal-based production is 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day.

5market sentiment

Table 2 Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners' Sentiment Expectations

6price prediction

In the short term, crude oil prices may remain at a high level with fluctuations, thus providing some support to the polyethylene market. However, downstream factories are resistant to high-priced supplies, and most enterprises adopt a 'buy as needed' strategy. Against the backdrop of weak demand, the cost support effect is limited. It is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the polyethylene market in the short term, and polyethylene prices may continue to decline.

7related product situation

crude oil market:In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positive factors come from the OPEC+ production cut atmosphere still present in March, the US strengthening sanctions on Iran, and increased geopolitical instability. The negative factors are Trump's new tariff policies dragging down demand expectations and a strong dollar. Recently, tightening geopolitical factors have brought potential supply risks, with ongoing instability in the situations involving Palestine, Israel, and Iran. It is expected that today's international crude oil prices will show an upward trend.