Pe daily review: Abundant Supply Leads to Declining Transaction Prices

1. Today's Summary

1. The U.S. softened its rhetoric on imposing additional tariffs, combined with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict that continues to pose potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract rose by $0.59 per barrel to $59.49, a 1.00% increase from the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the December contract rose by $0.59 per barrel to $63.32, a 0.94% increase from the previous period.

②、 The HD PE market price change range is -21 to -5 yuan/ton, the LDPE market price is -34 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE market price is -27 yuan/ton.

2. Spot Overview

The current polyethylene market is amply supplied, with downstream factories mostly purchasing as needed. Traders, in order to alleviate inventory pressure, tend to offer discounts to facilitate sales, leading to a decline in actual transaction prices. Although seasonal demand, such as for agricultural films, provides some support to the market, the overall supply pressure remains significant against the backdrop of continued release of new production capacity, and the rate of social inventory reduction is below expectations. The HDPE market price fluctuation range is -21 to -5 yuan/ton, LDPE market price is -34 yuan/ton, LLDPE market price is -27 yuan/ton.

3 ========

The main LL contract fluctuated downwards, opening at 6,996 yuan/ton. As of 15:00, the closing price was 6,918 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 266,300 lots, and the open interest was 577,100 lots. Today's futures-spot basis was 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day.

4 Production Dynamics

Capacity utilization by 81.1% changed to 81.2%. The oil-based production cost is 7,239 yuan/ton; the oil-based profit is -139 yuan/ton; the coal-based profit is 422 yuan/ton.

Figure 3   Domestic Polyethylene Capacity Utilization Trend	Figure 4   Domestic Polyethylene Profit and Price Comparison (Yuan /ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5 Market sentiment

Table 2. Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Polyethylene Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

6. Price Forecast

The current polyethylene market is experiencing significant supply pressure. After the holiday, domestic facilities that were previously under maintenance are gradually resuming operations. Additionally, new production capacities are planned to be released, and the concentration of imported resources arriving at ports has further exacerbated the pressure on the supply side. On the demand side, downstream factories are generally cautious in their purchasing behavior, mainly restocking as needed, providing limited support to the market. Considering both supply and demand factors, it is expected that the polyethylene market prices will show a weak consolidation trend tomorrow, with the operating range possibly being in. 10-50 yuan/ton fluctuation.

7. Related Product Information

Crude Oil Market: In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positive factors come from the continuation of U.S. sanctions policies on oil-producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, while the negative factors are... OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production amidst a sluggish global economy. The International Energy Agency is set to release its latest monthly report today, which may show an improved outlook for oil demand. It is expected that international oil prices will rise tomorrow.

8. Data Calendar

Table 3   Domestic Polyethylene Data Overview Table (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)