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[PBT Monthly Review] Monthly decline of 150-300! Trading volume centered around just demand, expected weak fluctuations for PBT in April.

Longzhong 2025-03-31 18:33:01

1. Hot Topics of the Month

In March, domestic PBT industry production saw significant growth, with capacity utilization increasing by 10.15% compared to the previous month.

In March, the average gross profit of the domestic PBT industry was -427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.15% compared to the previous month.

In March, the PBT market experienced a gradual decline, with strong observing sentiment in the market.

II. Review of Market Conditions This Month

Figure 1 2021-2025 Year-on-year trend chart of PBT pure resin prices in the East China region (RMB/ton)

[PBT月评]：淡弱运行，市场面利空充斥（2025年2月）

In March, the PBT market experienced a gradual stepwise decline, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. As of March 31, the mainstream negotiations for medium and low viscosity PBT chips in the Jiangsu market of East China were at 7,850-8,200 yuan/ton, down by 150-300 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. On the supply side, there were fewer maintenance shutdowns of PBT installations in March, leading to a significant increase in monthly production. On the cost side, the PTA market prices rebounded after a decline, with processing fees slightly recovering; the BDO market experienced a narrow decline before stabilizing. Overall, PBT prices in March showed a downward trend, but the decline was small and stepwise. Limited support from the cost side and the gradual commissioning of new BDO production capacities affected the sentiment in both the BDO and PBT markets. Most PBT industry participants held a pessimistic outlook for the future, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market was strong. Although demand entered the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," the actual demand improvement was limited, and overall transactions were still centered around rigid demand. Prices in the modification sector increased significantly, largely following the surge in antimony trioxide prices, but this upward trend had not yet transmitted to the raw material PBT market. There was a divergence in sentiment on the supply side, with some manufacturers offering discounts to clear inventory, and low prices were occasionally heard in the market. However, both supply and demand sides remained in a stalemate, with overall sentiment tense, leading to a weak and fluctuating downward market trend.

III. Analysis of Market Impact Factors

1） 97,000 tons of production: domestic supply increase, production up by 24.36%;

53.60%: The domestic PBT capacity utilization rate increased this month, rising by 10.15% compared to the previous month.

) -439 yuan per ton: Industry profit declined, with PBT monthly profit falling 5.02% to -439 yuan per ton.

Four, forecast for the future market of PBT

In April, the PBT market price is expected to decline weakly. The restart and maintenance shutdown of PBT facilities will coexist, with limited changes in supply. On the demand side, the improvement in demand is not optimistic, and transactions may continue to be driven by rigid needs. In terms of costs, the PTA market price is weak in the near term but strong in the long term, while the BDO market has fallen and then remained stagnant. In early April, the PBT facility of Fujian Meizhou Bay (Fujian Haiquan) which was shut down in March, is scheduled to restart, while the PBT facilities of Kanghui New Materials and Zhejiang Meiyuan are expected to undergo maintenance. The supply side is projected to see a slight month-on-month increase in production, which will remain at an annual high, further accumulating supply-side pressure. Additionally, the PBT trading volume in March revolved around rigid demand, with few large orders reported, leading to increased inventory pressure for manufacturers, which might increase the possibility of price concessions to boost sales in April. In the demand sector, although the spinning field is in the relatively peak season of the year, the actual increase in demand is not significant and is insufficient to support the PBT market. The modification sector is affected by the surge in antimony trioxide prices, and the future impact on raw material PBT resin still needs to be observed. Overall, the fundamentals of the PBT market in April are still filled with bearish factors, making the market price prone to fall and difficult to rise. Considering all factors, the domestic PBT market price in April is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mainstream negotiation range for medium and low viscosity PBT chips in East China is expected to be between 7,700 and 8,000 yuan/ton.

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[PBT Monthly Review] Monthly decline of 150-300! Trading volume centered around just demand, expected weak fluctuations for PBT in April.

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