【PA6 Monthly Review】Monthly Drop of 955! Demand Unlikely to Improve Significantly, PA6 Stabilizes First Then Fluctuates

1. Market Focus for This Month

1 Sinopec's high-end caprolactam settlement price in March 2025 was 10,790 yuan per ton (liquid premium grade with six-month acceptance and self-pickup), a decrease of 715 yuan per ton compared to the February settlement price.

2 Sinopec has reduced the price of pure benzene by 350 yuan/ton at refineries in East China and South China, with the new price set at 6,600 yuan/ton, effective from March 26th.

3） In March, the production of polyamide 6 polymerization was 610,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 133,800 tons and a month-on-month increase of 36,700 tons. The operating rate of polyamide 6 polymerization in March was 84.79%, up 1.78% year-on-year but down 3.82% month-on-month.

Market Analysis for This Month

Domestic Regional Price Fluctuation Comparison Table

Unit: yuan/ton

Data source: Longzhong Information

In March, the PA6 chip market initially declined before rebounding. In the first and middle ten days, multiple bearish factors such as costs and demand, coupled with average terminal orders, led to cautious downstream procurement of chips. Sales of both chips and caprolactam were hindered, with caprolactam prices falling below the 10,000 yuan mark, weakening cost support for chips. Additionally, polymerization inventory and demand pressures prompted price cuts to clear stock, driving chip market prices down to a yearly low. In the latter ten days, polymerization companies, facing losses, slightly raised chip ex-factory prices. Downstream buyers entered the market to buy at the bottom, selectively replenishing inventory, which improved market trading sentiment. Some polymerization firms, with significantly reduced inventories, held firm on quotations. By the end of March, the price range for conventional-spinning PA6 chips in the East China market was 10,500–10,800 yuan/ton for mid-to-low-end products (cash, short delivery), with some higher-priced chips at 10,600–11,200 yuan/ton (East China, self-pickup). The price of high-speed spinning semi-dull PA6 chips continued to decline this month. Downstream spinning producers, facing average orders, remained cautious in raw material procurement, maintaining on-demand replenishment, which limited market transactions. Meanwhile, the ongoing decline in caprolactam prices provided weak cost support, keeping the market weak. By the end of March, the spot price for premium-grade high-speed spinning PA6 chips in the East China market was 11,100–11,700 yuan/ton (acceptance, short delivery), with some low-priced sources from northern regions at 10,500–10,700 yuan/ton (cash, ex-factory).

2. Market Impact Factor Analysis

1) Cost forecast: In April, although the spot price of pure benzene rebounded slightly, the market still had concerns about the increase in pure benzene imports in April and the impact of some downstream maintenance on demand. Therefore, it was generally expected that the price of pure benzene would fluctuate slightly, and the cost side was expected to provide general support for caprolactam. On the supply side, the plans for caprolactam load reduction and maintenance in April were relatively concentrated, and it was expected that the supply of caprolactam in April would continue to decrease, providing some support to the market. On the demand side, some downstream PA6 plants also had maintenance plans, and the required volume was expected to decrease. Based on the current maintenance plans of caprolactam and PA6, if all caprolactam maintenance was carried out as planned, the supply and demand of caprolactam in April would be roughly balanced or slightly tight. The market was expected to continue to enter a destocking situation after the reduction of caprolactam and PA6 supply in April, but due to the general follow-up of terminal demand, it might be difficult to support a significant price increase. Moreover, since the price at the beginning of April was relatively low, the average market price of caprolactam in April was expected to be slightly lower than that in March. The price trend might stop falling and rebound slightly. The market price in East China was expected to be 9800-10300 yuan/ton.

2) Profit Analysis: In March, the profit for conventional spinning PA6 chips decreased. The monthly average price of upstream caprolactam liquid cargo was 10,067.86 yuan/ton (delivered with acceptance), and the spot price on March 31 was 9,825 yuan/ton (delivered with acceptance). The factory price of PA6 chips ranged from 10,500 to 10,700 yuan/ton (cash ex-factory), with a monthly average gross profit of -44 yuan/ton (the processing cost for conventional spinning chips is calculated at 800 yuan/ton).

3) ConsumptionForecast: The nylon market in April will still face significant pressure. On the cost side, if the maintenance scope of the caprolactam market expands or unexpected force majeure affects caprolactam production in April, there may be a brief fluctuation and rise in costs. Short-term prices are likely to continue weak operation, making it difficult to form strong cost support for the nylon market. The improvement on the demand side is limited, and the prices of nylon filament and related products are expected to fluctuate weakly. If demand improves beyond expectations or costs fluctuate significantly due to unexpected events, market prices may adjust accordingly. However, in the absence of major positive factors, the nylon market is unlikely to show a clear upward trend in the short term. Market participants need to closely monitor the price trends of raw materials on the cost side, changes in downstream demand dynamics, and industry-related equipment maintenance and capacity expansion. The mainstream negotiation price for POY85D/24F in the East China market is expected to be 13,000-14,500 yuan/ton, with flexible negotiations.

3. Market forecast for next month

In April 2025, the market is expected to stabilize initially and then fluctuate. On the supply side: Yuehua New Materials and Jiangsu Hongsheng will have some production lines begin operations, while Zhejiang Fangyuan and Fangming plan maintenance, and some polymerization plants intend to slightly reduce output, leading to an overall decline in polymerization operating rates and reduced production. On the cost side: later-stage maintenance at some caprolactam enterprises will reduce supply, supporting caprolactam prices, potentially providing slightly stronger cost support for slices. On the demand side: moderate terminal orders have made raw material procurement cautious, with demand likely dominated by restocking after inventory depletion, making significant demand improvements unlikely. The PA6 market is expected to stabilize initially and then perform slightly better, following cost trends. The price for conventional-spun ordinary PA6 slices in the East China market is projected at 10,400-11,200 RMB/ton for spot delivery, while high-speed spun slices are expected at 11,000-12,000 RMB/ton for acceptance delivery.