Overnight Oil Prices Fall More Than 2%, All Plastic Futures In The Red

Crude Oil Market Dynamics

Despite the instability of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, it still brings optimistic expectations for de-escalation in the US-Iran situation, causing international oil prices to fall by more than 2%.WTI Crude OilTouching 100 dollars upward and then falling back, finallyClosed down 2.4%, at $95.62 per barrel;Brent crude oilFinished down 2.21%, closing at 94.25 dollars per barrel.

Market Outlook

Main influencing factors:

1. The market is paying attention to the US-Iran talks, and concerns have somewhat eased. (Bearish)

2. The US and Iran still have significant differences on some issues, and potential supply risks remain. (Bullish)

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed with no substantial improvement, leading to continued shipping concerns. (Bullish)

II. Macro Market Dynamics

1. U.S.-Iran tensions

① Trump:It will begin to blockade all ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, intercept vessels in international waters that pay Iran for passage, and clear the mines laid by Iran in the strait. Apart from the nuclear issue, the US and Iran have reached agreement on "most issues."

② Trump said the U.S. will not allow Iran to make money by selling oil.

The time and location of the next U.S.-Iran talks have not been determined yet.

④Israeli media: Israel assesses that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire may be extended, while the Israeli military prepares to launch another strike against Iran.

⑤The Iranian Revolutionary Guard says that non-military vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided they comply with navigation guidelines.

⑥ Iran said it resisted three "unreasonable demands" from the US in the negotiations: the demand for "equal sharing of the Strait benefits"; the removal of all 60% enriched uranium out of the country; and the deprivation of Iran's right to uranium enrichment for the next 20 years.

Vahid Karimi: If the US provokes, Iran will also retaliate.

⑧Regional informed officials: The diplomatic doors between the US and Iran remain open, and a second round of negotiations could take place within days.

⑨Starting from 10 PM Beijing time on the 13th, the US military has blocked maritime traffic at Iranian ports, claiming it will not impede the freedom of navigation for vessels traveling to and from non-Iranian ports.

⑩ Iranian Foreign Minister: When we were just one step away from reaching an agreement, the U.S. changed its terms.

Surging oil prices drove a sharp rise in the U.S. overall CPI in March, which increased by 3.3% year-over-year; core inflation remained resilient.

3. The Kremlin: The envoy's visit to the U.S. does not signify a resumption of peace negotiations on Ukraine. Kyrylo Budanov, a key member of Ukraine's negotiation delegation, stated that Ukraine is close to reaching an agreement with Putin.

4、Russia claims Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire agreement by attacking the Kherson region.

5、The Israeli Prime Minister stated that Israel will continue striking Iran and its proxies; the Israeli military launched a heavy assault on Lebanon’s Hezbollah in the past 24 hours.

An Iranian oil ministry official said that the damaged refinery is expected to recover to at least 70 percent of its previous capacity within one to two months.

7. General Secretary Xi Jinping met with KMT Chairwoman Zheng Liwen; the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Central Committee was authorized to release ten measures to promote cross-strait exchanges and cooperation.

National Bureau of Statistics: In March, the CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and the PPI turned from a decline to an increase.

III. Plastic Market Dynamics

Crude oil fell more than 2% overnight on Friday, and all major plastic-related futures contracts declined during the night session.

The PE2605 futures contract is quoted at 8,338 yuan/ton, down 1.66% from the previous trading day.

PP2605 contract quoted at 8928 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous trading day;

The PVC2605 contract was quoted at 4957 yuan/ton, down 0.7% from the previous trading day.

The styrene May 2026 contract was reported at 9,896 tons, down 1.25% from the previous trading day.

IV. Market Forecast

PE: In the short term, the number of planned shutdowns has increased further, but the number of planned startups is relatively low, so the supply pressure may further ease. Downstream has some compulsory demand, but the increase in production rate is weak, and inventory replenishment is mainly at low levels, with no significant driving force for price increases. Inventory depletion is slow, and the market has sufficient spot supplies. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, and further guidance is awaited. It is expected that the PE market will see a slight decline this week.

PP: Geopolitical tensions remain volatile, production enterprises face high costs, and plant load reductions and shutdowns are expected to persist, keeping domestic supply tight and providing some support to spot prices. Demand remains weak, with high prices suppressing downstream purchasing willingness; buyers adopt a “just-in-time” procurement approach, and market sentiment is predominantly (cautious and). The polypropylene market is expected to trade in a narrow range this week.

PVC: Overall, the PVC spot market fluctuated downward amid expectations of a recovery in long-term supply.