Oil Prices Rise for Third Consecutive Day! Regulatory Crackdown on Low-Price Chaos Signals Upward Trend in Plastic Spot Market

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to raise market concerns about potential supply risks, coupled with the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEXCrude Oil FuturesThe October contract rose by $1.22 per barrel to $64.52, an increase of 1.93% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude oil futures for November rose by $1.03 per barrel to $68.47, up 1.53% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2511 increased by 5.0 to 493.5 yuan per barrel, and rose by 7.7 to 501.2 yuan per barrel in the night session.

Market Outlook

II. Macroeconomic Developments

1、 Retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in August, higher than the median forecast of 0.2%.The previous value is 0.50%.

2. The Russian oil transportation company denies reports of restricting the receipt of oil from producers.

3、The United States plans to establish a $5 billion fund to invest in mining, strengthening its supply chain for critical minerals.

4. Tariffs — British media: The EU and Indonesia have reached a trade agreement.The U.S. Department of Commerce is considering imposing additional tariffs on more imported auto parts.The United States and India stated that trade negotiators held positive talks in New Delhi on Tuesday, and both countries agreed to intensify efforts to reach a trade agreement.

5. American Diplomacy—①Trump and Modi have a conversation, seeking to ease differences over tariffs and Russian oil.②Netanyahu will visit the White House again at the end of this month.3. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke with Trump on the phone, and the former agreed to gradually phase out Russian oil imports and increase sanctions on Russia. 4. Japanese media: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is scheduled to visit the United States next week. 5. Trump arrives in the United Kingdom.

6、The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued the "Several Policy Measures on Expanding Service Consumption."The text mentions exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, with a corresponding shortening of winter and summer vacations.

7. U.S. President Trump stated that he will have a phone call with Chinese leaders this Friday. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded: There is no information available at the moment.

8、The Ministry of National Defense responds to the Fujian ship passing through the Taiwan Strait.This is a normal arrangement in the aircraft carrier construction process and is not aimed at any specific country or target.

The China Coast Guard responded to the Philippine government vessel's deliberate collision with the Chinese Coast Guard ship during normal law enforcement: The Philippine side's intentional infringement and provocative actions are of a vile nature, and the responsibility for the collision lies entirely with the Philippine side.

10、China has successfully launched the Satellite Internet Technology Test Satellite.

3. Early Morning Dynamics of the Plastic Market

Oil prices rose for the third consecutive day! Overnight, the main contracts of domestic plastic futures showed mixed results.

The plastic 2601 contract was reported at 7,256 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract is quoted at 6,990 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2601 contract is quoted at 4972 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous trading day.

The styrene 2510 contract is quoted at 7,172 yuan/ton, down 0.20% compared to the previous trading day.

4. Market Forecast

PE: The cost support has somewhat strengthened. Additionally, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, the peak demand season is coming closer, creating expectations for consumption stimulus in the market. There is a possibility of improved downstream demand. Some bargain hunting is observed in the market, but overall, the downstream purchasing capability is weak, making it difficult to strongly drive the market. In summary, it is expected that in the short term, the polyethylene market is likely to exhibit a fluctuating trend.

PP: In the short term, the polypropylene market is expected to show a trend of "range-bound fluctuations with a slightly strong consolidation." Inventory reduction and pre-holiday restocking expectations will support prices and limit the downside, while the demand side has not yet shown substantial improvement. Additionally, OPEC+ production increases and global economic pressures remain, limiting upward momentum in the market. It is highly likely that the market will primarily experience oscillating adjustments within the current price range.

PVC: Chlor-alkali enterprises maintain high and stable operating rates. With the introduction of new production capacity and continued high operating rates, the supply issue of PVC remains a key factor limiting the price level. On the demand side, although there is an expectation of a peak season, there has not yet been a significant turning point. In the external market, crude oil futures opened higher as a new round of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries has kept geopolitical tensions high. Overall, in the short term, the PVC spot market price may slightly improve.