Oil prices fluctuate sharply intraday and close lower, plastic futures run weak

I. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On September 18, market concerns about the poor outlook for the U.S. economy and demand overshadowed the positive effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $0.48 to $63.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.75%. ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract dropped by $0.51 to $67.44 per barrel, also a decrease of 0.75%. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract fell by 3.5 to 496.3 yuan per barrel, with a night session drop of 7.5 to 488.8 yuan per barrel.

Market Outlook

Oil prices experienced their most volatile day in recent times, with a tug-of-war throughout the day ultimately leading to a decline. During the Asian session, oil prices adjusted, but in the European session, they surged amid significant fluctuations. Market reports indicated that the EU might propose new sanctions against Russia as early as this week, while Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian oil facilities contributed to the intraday rebound in oil prices. Additionally, Qatar Energy significantly raised its official crude oil prices, boosting the performance of oil prices in the Middle East region.

This week, oil prices have generally been relatively strong. On one hand, geopolitical factors have consistently disrupted the oil market, while concerns about oversupply have been alleviated to some extent after the EIA report showed a significant decline in weekly crude oil inventories. This has made the upward momentum in the small structural trends of oil prices appear stronger, while the downward adjustments exhibit resistance characteristics.

As oil prices continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, we can see that the focus of the short, medium, and long-term cycles in the crude oil market is once again converging. This indicates that the balance between bulls and bears has reached an extreme equilibrium, and the market is perhaps nearing a breakthrough moment. Be patient and wait for the situation to become clear. In terms of opportunities, the focus should still be on seizing opportunities to short after rebounds and surges. Pay attention to grasping the rhythm and participate cautiously.

Section 2: Macroeconomic Market Trends

1、Trump opposes the UK recognizing the State of Palestine.

In July, the UK and Japan increased their holdings of U.S. debt, while China reduced theirs.

3、Trump: I could consider providing tariff rebates to Americans.

4、The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4%.The pace of quantitative tightening will be reduced from 100 billion pounds to 70 billion pounds. Governor Bailey stated that they still believe interest rates will continue to decline.

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the Trump tariff case on November 5th.

6、A major error occurred in the U.S. continuing unemployment claims data, with the data for one state being underestimated by nearly 20,000 people.

7. Chinese companies are asked to terminate orders for Nvidia chips? The Foreign Ministry responds.

The Minister of Science and Technology: During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, we will strengthen original and leading scientific and technological research efforts.

3. Plastic Market Dynamics

The night market for chemical products is showing a tendency for weak fluctuations.

The plastic 2601 contract is quoted at 7,180 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract was quoted at 6916 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2601 contract is reported at 4,940 yuan/ton, up 0.02% from the previous trading day.

The styrene 2511 contract is quoted at 7,037 yuan/ton, down 0.75% from the previous trading day.

4. Market Forecast for Next Week

PE: The polyethylene price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward next week.

PP: It is expected that polypropylene will have opportunities for low-price increases after friction at low levels next week. Transactions at absolute low prices will deplete inventory, and the supply-demand situation will gradually improve.

PVC: It is expected that PVC prices will consolidate at a high level next week, with high-end prices declining. The supply-demand contradiction is difficult to alleviate, and the PVC market will operate with fluctuations.