National Unified Market Accelerates Progress! Structural Differentiation in Plastic Demand, Industry Concentration Expected to Rise

The 18th issue of "Qiushi" magazine, published on September 16, 2025, features an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Advancing the Construction of a Unified National Market at Depth." This represents a major strategic deployment by the Party Central Committee in response to changes in domestic and international economic conditions.

The article emphasizes that building a unified national market is not only necessary for establishing a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, but also for gaining an advantage in international competition. The core of this policy lies in the "Five Unifications and One Openness" basic requirements: unifying the fundamental market system, unifying market infrastructure, unifying standards for government conduct, unifying market supervision and law enforcement, unifying the factor resources market, and continuously expanding openness.

From the perspective of the plastic market, this policy will have a direct impact on the following aspects:

• Unified market regulatory enforcement will reduce regional differences in market regulation. The regulatory standards for the plastic spot market will become more consistent, which may reduce price distortions caused by market segmentation, allowing futures prices to more accurately reflect the national supply and demand relationship.
• A unified factor resources market will promote the free flow and efficient allocation of elements such as raw materials and capital. The circulation efficiency of petrochemical raw materials in the upstream of the plastics industry chain may improve, which could help reduce production costs in the medium to long term. However, in the short term, it may intensify competition between regions.
• The policy direction focused on addressing the chaotic phenomenon of low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises may have a profound impact on the plastic industry. Companies relying on low-price competition and substandard products will face stronger regulatory pressures, while large compliant plastic enterprises are likely to gain more market share, thereby increasing industry concentration.

It is noteworthy that the policy explicitly mentions "focusing on rectifying the chaos in government procurement bidding," specifically highlighting the need to "focus on rectifying prominent issues such as the lowest price winning the bid, substituting inferior goods for quality ones, and collusion of interests." This may lead to changes in the bidding standards for plastic products, shifting from solely pursuing low prices to emphasizing both quality and price, which will boost the demand for high-quality plastic materials.

The current demand in the plastic market shows a characteristic structural differentiation: the demand for traditional applications such as PVC pipes related to real estate has decreased by 8%, and the operating rate of e-commerce packaging films is below 40%; however, the demand for modified PP driven by lightweighting in new energy vehicles has increased by 12%, and the demand for photovoltaic EVA films has surged by 18%.

On the cost side, crude oil prices are currently hovering around $65 per barrel, weakening their support effect on plastic costs. Historical data show that the correlation between oil prices and plastic futures has dropped from 0.95 to 0.6, but extreme fluctuations still suppress prices through profit transmission.

From a technical analysis perspective (taking plastic futures as an example), the plastic 2601 contract has basically been fluctuating within the 7200-7300 yuan range since early September. There is obvious resistance near 7300 yuan (corresponding to the vicinity of the 60-day moving average) on the upside, while 7200 yuan serves as an important support level (which was briefly broken but quickly recovered in the short term).

The market lacks sufficient trading volume. Since the rebound after last Friday’s bottom, open interest has decreased from 560,000 contracts to 520,000 contracts, indicating that short positions are being closed for profit. However, the limited increase in open interest reflects strong market hesitation. This technical pattern suggests that the market lacks a clear direction at current price levels and is still waiting for new fundamental or policy signals for guidance.

In terms of risk control, the main risks currently facing the plastic futures market include fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected accumulation of inventory, and risks associated with insufficient policy enforcement. Therefore, it is essential to closely monitor international oil price trends. If oil prices break through $70 per barrel or drop below $60 per barrel, it could alter the cost structure of plastics. Additionally, tracking petrochemical inventory data is crucial; if inventory continues to accumulate beyond 750,000 tons, it indicates increased supply pressure, and long positions should consider exiting.

Finally, attention should be paid to how local governments implement the policy of building a unified national market. Although the Qiushi article has clarified the direction of deepening the development of a unified national market, the specific implementation details and pace may vary by region. This could lead to divergent market interpretations and price fluctuations.

In addition, the plastic market still faces a high risk of supply-demand imbalance. It is recommended to track the commissioning progress and maintenance plans of major producers and adjust positions in a timely manner. At the same time, changes in the pace and extent of Fed interest rate cuts may affect global capital flows and commodity pricing. It is advised to closely monitor US trade policy developments and Federal Reserve meeting updates, and to be well prepared for external risk hedging.

Overall, the article "Deepening the Construction of a National Unified Market" published in Qiushi Journal has a longer-term impact on the plastic futures market than a short-term one, as the release of institutional dividends requires time. In the short-term investment cycle, the dominant factors in the market remain the fundamental supply and demand pattern and the technical price changes.

Plastic futures are currently at the historical crossroads of "traditional capacity elimination" and the "green revolution." The implementation of the national unified market policy will accelerate this process, potentially increasing industry concentration. Leading enterprises such as Wanhua Chemical and Kingfa Sci & Tech are likely to benefit. Investors may pay attention to cross-product arbitrage opportunities and industry chain integration opportunities brought about by industry restructuring.