[Morning PVC Update] PVC Market Prices Expected to Decline Amid Volatility Today

I. Focus Points

1 [Longzhong] 8/15: The market is awaiting the outcome of the meeting between the US and Russian leaders, and geopolitical tensions are expected to ease further. International oil prices have declined. The NYMEX crude oil futures September contract closed at $62.80 per barrel, down $1.16, a decrease of 1.81% compared to the previous period. The ICE Brent crude oil futures October contract closed at $65.85 per barrel, down $0.99, a decrease of 1.48% compared to the previous period. China’s INE crude oil futures September 2025 contract rose by 3.0 to 488.9 yuan per barrel, but fell by 4.8 to 484.1 yuan per barrel in the night session.

2 、 Calcium Carbide: Last week, domestic calcium carbide prices showed a significant decline, with the mainstream trade price in the Wuhai area at 2250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. Production enterprises are actively selling, and with the PVC maintenance in Inner Mongolia taking place, integrated calcium carbide is being sold externally, increasing market supply. To expedite sales, some companies are flexible in transactions, and low-priced sources are increasing. The number of vehicles waiting to unload downstream has decreased, but with the recent reduction in ex-factory prices, the number of vehicles en route has increased, and loading has improved, with regional accumulation increasing. The price of raw anthracite is firm, and with the rise in lump coal prices, there is an expectation of continued upward movement, providing support for the low-end calcium carbide market. It is expected that the calcium carbide market will generally show a downward trend this week, with prices gradually bottoming out due to cost pressures.

3 PVC: Last week, domestic PVC spot prices fluctuated downward, with fairly good transaction volumes. High operating rates at PVC production enterprises continued to drive up output, while demand remained weak, leading to ongoing inventory accumulation in the industry. Cost support for the sector was relatively weak, and there are currently no favorable factors in the short term, so spot transactions are expected to remain subdued. As of August 15, the price for acetylene-based PVC Type 5 in East China was 4,800-4,920 yuan/ton (cash, ex-warehouse), while ethylene-based PVC fluctuated between 4,900-5,150 yuan/ton.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

The short-term fundamentals of the PVC spot market remain weak, with increased maintenance scale but new production capacity being released. Overall supply remains high, and domestic demand is expected to be stable. Industry inventory is expected to continue accumulating. In terms of foreign trade exports, over the weekend, India introduced anti-dumping tax policies, dampening market sentiment and exerting some pressure on future exports. Coupled with weak support from the cost side, the PVC market price is expected to fluctuate and decline today.

4. Data Calendar