【Morning Plastics Market Update】Oil prices surge! As the maintenance season approaches, PE and PVC are showing weaker performance, while PP is experiencing range-bound fluctuations.

Summary: Morning prompt for the general plastics market on March 21! The United States continues to strengthen sanctions against Iran, and the instability in the Middle East brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. Increased maintenance volumes alleviate supply pressures, with PE market prices showing a weak trend; overall demand is weak, and the PP market may experience range-bound fluctuations; there is no expectation of improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals, and the PVC market maintains a weak and stable operation; strong photovoltaic demand supports, and EVA is mainly expected to remain stable or slightly weaker.

PP

I. Focus Points

The US continues to strengthen sanctions against Iran, and the instability in the Middle East brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX04 contract rose by $1.10 to $68.26 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of +1.64%; the ICE Brent crude futures 05 contract increased by $1.22 to $72.00 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of +1.72%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2505 rose by 0.6 to 522 yuan per barrel, and the night session increased by 12.1 to 534.1 yuan per barrel.

2, Propylene FOB Korea remains at 810 USD/ton, CFR China remains at 830 USD/ton.

3. The polypropylene capacity utilization rate for this period (March 14, 2025 - March 20, 2025) decreased by 5.08% to 76.98%; Sinopec's capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.95% to 87.12%.

4. This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 732,600 tons, a decrease of 44,800 tons from last week's 777,400 tons, with a decline rate of 5.76%. Compared to the same period last year, which was 642,500 tons, it increased by 90,100 tons, with a growth rate of 14.02%.

core logic: input format:Downstream order follow-up is limited, and weak demand is insufficient to support prices.

II. Price List

Three, Market Outlook

Today, international oil prices have risen significantly, enhancing cost support, which is beneficial for the spot quotes of plastics. The number of maintenance units at upstream production enterprises has increased, with a noticeable decline in weekly output data, and no new capacity has been added, making the supply pressure manageable. However, there has been no significant improvement in new orders from downstream factories, and overall weak demand provides insufficient support for PP prices. It is expected that the polypropylene market will fluctuate within a range today.

PE

I. Focus Points

1cost end:The US continues to strengthen sanctions on Iran, and the instability in the Middle East brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose by $1.10 per barrel to $68.26, a month-on-month increase of +1.64%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract increased by $1.22 per barrel to $72.00, a month-on-month increase of +1.72%.

2current parking equipment:Currently, the parking equipment involves 26 sets of polyethylene equipment, with additional maintenance for Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical.

3、yesterday's market review:The domestic polyethylene market fell the previous day, with a decline of 8-60/ton. Factory prices were reduced, and as costs shifted downward, traders continued to offer discounts on sales, maintaining a cautious atmosphere.

core logic: input format:The spot market for polyethylene is operating with a weak and fluctuating trend.

II. Price List

Three, Market Outlook

Maintenance volume increase alleviates supply pressure; downstream factories have a bearish sentiment, leading to decreased procurement. In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and polyethylene market prices are operating on the weaker side.

PVC

I. Focus Points

3/20: The US continues to strengthen sanctions against Iran, and the instability in the Middle East brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose by $1.10 per barrel to $68.26, up 1.64% month-over-month; ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract increased by $1.22 per barrel to $72.00, up 1.72% month-over-month. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2505 rose by 0.6 to 522 yuan per barrel, and the night session increased by 12.1 to 534.1 yuan per barrel.

2, Carbide: Currently, the number of downstream vehicles awaiting unloading remains low, and regional shortages in arrivals are affecting PVC production loads. However, with improved profitability, there is an increased enthusiasm for production among manufacturers. Previously shut-down facilities are gradually resuming operations, leading to a growing trend in the supply of commercial carbide. Next week, due to maintenance on PVC in the Sichuan region, demand will decrease, which may gradually stabilize market prices. It is expected that, with the recent price increases in the Ningxia region, there will be an overall increase of 50 yuan/ton in market trading prices. However, next week, as the market enters a phase of stabilization and inventory replenishment, regional performance will become more pronounced.

3, PVC: The domestic PVC market price remained firm yesterday, with a slight decline in transactions; the load of PVC production enterprises changed little within the week, and the supply slightly decreased due to the temporary impact of individual equipment loads. The atmosphere for exports at low prices was acceptable, and the spot prices in the market remained firm. As of March 20th, the warehouse withdrawal price for the five-type calcium carbide method in the East China region was 4800-4950 yuan/ton, and for the ethylene method, it was 4950-5200 yuan/ton.

II. Price List

Three, Market Outlook

PVC current supply remains at a high level, but domestic downstream demand is still mainly based on rigid demand. Forward orders are performing poorly, and there is no expectation of improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals. At present, the supply of raw material calcium carbide is tight, and prices still show signs of increase. The cost bottom support is firm, and at the same time, driven by foreign trade delivery and terminal restocking demand, industry inventory continues to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of PVC continue to be in a tug-of-war, and it is expected that the PVC market will maintain a weak and stable operation in the short term.

EVA