[Morning Briefing on EVA] Domestic EVA Market Expected to Show Short-Term Fluctuating Strength

1. Focus Points

1 On [Longzhong] August 12: The market continues to focus on the meeting between the US and Russian leaders, with geopolitical tensions expected to ease further, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.79 to $63.17 per barrel, a decrease of 1.24% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the October contract fell by $0.51 to $66.12 per barrel, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2510 contract rose by 2.5 to 492.6 yuan per barrel, with the night session dropping by 1.8 to 490.8 yuan per barrel.

2 Ethylene: Although the current ethylene prices are relatively high, resulting in negative profit margins for downstream external procurement sectors, the operating load for downstream external procurement sectors, especially those related to styrene, remains at a high level. Therefore, there is still a firm buying intention due to rigid demand. Considering the current supply and demand situation, spot prices in the East China region are expected to remain stable on the next working day, with transaction ranges anticipated around 6,900 RMB/ton; the USD market is projected to be between 810-840 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The trading atmosphere in the vinyl acetate market is subdued, with no significant improvement in downstream demand. There is insufficient new order negotiation, and some holders are offering lower prices due to sales pressure. The overall atmosphere in the market is not favorable. Looking at the future trend, market participants have a bearish sentiment, paying attention to the flow of goods and changes in participants' sentiments. It is expected that the vinyl acetate market will continue to consolidate weakly in the short term.

Core Logic: The cost of ethylene and vinyl acetate remains stable with a consolidation trend, while cost support weakens. EVA supply-side support remains strong, and some soft material shortages persist. Weak demand limits the upside potential. The market is expected to maintain a slightly strong consolidation trend.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

From the spot market perspective, the supply side remains strong in supporting prices. Inventories at various petrochemical plants are stable, providing support, and the supply of some goods remains relatively tight. Holders are reluctant to sell and keep their offers high. However, downstream demand from foam manufacturers is somewhat insufficient, limiting the market's upward potential. In the short term, the domestic EVA market is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias. The anticipated price ranges are: soft grade at 10,200-10,700 RMB/ton, hard grade at 9,800-10,600 RMB/ton, and photovoltaic grade at 9,500-9,800 RMB/ton.