Lithium Carbonate Futures Prices Return to 80,000 Yuan per Ton!

On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 80,520 yuan per ton, marking a five-month high. This followed a previous day's closing price of 76,680 yuan per ton, continuing the upward trend.

Due to the continuous rise in lithium carbonate futures, on the evening of July 25, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that, after research and decision, starting from the trading session on July 28, 2025, non-futures company members or clients shall not open more than 3,000 positions in a single day on lithium carbonate futures contracts.

Some analyses suggest that the lithium carbonate futures price returning to 80,000 yuan per ton is due to tightening supply and demand as well as the impact of policy adjustments.

Image source: Tianqi Lithium Corporation

With the continuous increase in sales of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium carbonate in the auto market has also risen. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 6.937 million units (including exports), a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. This has led to growth in power battery installations. In the first half of the year, the installed capacity of power batteries for domestic new energy vehicles reached 302.24 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%.

At the policy level, Yichun City has required eight lithium mining companies to complete mineral reserve verification by the end of September. Some believe this will trigger expectations of a contraction in the supply of mica-based lithium extraction. Meanwhile, the suspension of production for maintenance by some domestic lithium mining enterprises, or issues such as delays in the renewal of mining licenses, may further support the rise of lithium carbonate futures prices.

At the same time, the government's repeated emphasis on "anti-involution" in the industry has also supported the recovery of lithium carbonate prices. In early July, the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission proposed to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Subsequently, industries such as photovoltaics, steel, cement, and lithium batteries actively responded to policy guidance by accelerating the clearing of production capacity.

According to Wind Information, as of July 25, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan per ton, an increase of 21% compared to the same period last year.

Benefiting from the rebound in lithium carbonate prices, the performance of some upstream lithium mining companies has improved. Tianqi Lithium Industry expects a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan in the first half of the year, possibly turning losses into gains. Ganfeng Lithium Industry expects a net loss of 300 to 550 million yuan in the first half of the year, with the loss narrowing compared to the same period last year.