How Oil Prices React as Israel Raids Doha

On September 9, 2025, the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet intelligence agency jointly announced the launch of the "Summit of Fire" operation against the senior leadership of Hamas located in Doha, the capital of Qatar. This event quickly triggered strong reactions in international markets, with oil prices experiencing significant fluctuations.

The target of this attack was several senior officials of Hamas's political bureau. At the time of the attack, the Hamas negotiating team was discussing the Gaza ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States. The Israeli side claimed that these targets were directly responsible for the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, and that precision weapons were used in the operation to minimize civilian casualties. However, the operation still resulted in an explosion in downtown Doha, affecting nearby gas stations and residential areas.

After the news was announced, international oil prices surged briefly, with both Brent and WTI crude oil rising by more than 1%. As of 21:43 Beijing time on the evening of the 9th, WTI crude oil was up 1.65%, and Brent crude oil was up 1.61%. The rise in oil prices reflects the market's concerns about geopolitical risks. The Middle East has always been an important global oil supply region, and any geopolitical tensions there can trigger market worries about oil supply, thereby driving oil prices higher.

Figure: Doha, Qatar is located in the heart of the Persian Gulf.

Qatar is the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, accounting for 20% of the global supply. However, this attack did not directly target energy infrastructure, and oil supplies have not been disrupted. Nevertheless, Israel's military strike on Qatari territory has broken Qatar's status as a neutral zone and reignited tensions in the Middle East. The escalation of these tensions has raised market concerns that the conflict could further spread, affecting oil supplies across the entire Middle East and thereby pushing up oil prices.

Figure: Global LNG Supply Sources Share in the First Half of 2025

Historically, similar conflicts in the Middle East have also caused significant fluctuations in oil prices. For example, during the Israel-Iran conflict in June 2025, oil prices surged from $70 per barrel to $81 per barrel, an increase of 15%. Although the recent Israeli attack on Qatar has not yet caused a direct impact on oil supply, the market remains full of concerns about the future development of the situation. If the conflict escalates further, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transportation channel, is affected, oil prices could rise even more sharply.

However, some analysts believe that the Doha attack will not pose a direct disruption risk to the global oil market. The market currently generally expects that due to a slowdown in demand growth, the global oil market will soon experience a surplus. This means that although geopolitical risks may drive up oil prices in the short term, in the long run, oil price trends will still be influenced by supply and demand relationships.

Overall, the Israeli raid on Doha led to a short-term increase in oil prices, reflecting the impact of geopolitical risks on the oil market. The future trend of oil prices will depend on developments in the Middle East situation and changes in global oil market supply and demand.

Author: Zhou Yongle, Senior Market Analysis Expert