How does the worsening of inflation data in the United States affect the plastic market?

Last Friday, international oil prices fell sharply due to concerns over U.S. inflation impacting oil demand prospects. According to the latest data, on Friday Eastern Time, the U.S. core PCE price index (excluding energy and food) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in February, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, marking the highest level since January 2024; the year-on-year growth rate increased from 2.7% to 2.8%, the highest since December 2024, both exceeding expectations by 0.1 percentage points. In the short term, inflation is dampening market confidence, and there may still be downward expectations for international prices in the future, which is bearish for plastic spot prices. In the futures market, today, PP and PE futures opened lower and continued to decline, with a slight recovery towards the end, closing with minor losses. The futures market continues to trend downward, which is negative for the plastic spot market. In the petrochemical sector, as of March 31, the inventory of the two major oil companies for plastics was 730,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from last week, a month-on-month decline of 8.96%, and a year-on-year decline of 3.95%. Low petrochemical inventory is favorable for plastic spot pricing. In the short term, there are more bearish factors in the market, leading to a weak trend in plastic prices.

From the market offering situation, PE prices continued to decline. The current mainstream linear prices were reported at 7,730-8,300 yuan/ton. Linear prices in North China were reported at 7,730-7,850 yuan/ton, with regional offerings falling successively by 20-50 yuan/ton. Linear prices in East China were reported at 7,850-8,000 yuan/ton, with some offerings increasing slightly by 20 yuan/ton. Linear prices in South China were reported at 7,850-8,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. Linear prices in Southwest China were reported at 7,780-8,050 yuan/ton, with low-end offerings falling slightly by 20 yuan/ton. Similarly, high-pressure prices continued to decline, with the current mainstream high-pressure prices reported at 9,350-10,600 yuan/ton. High-pressure prices in North China were reported at 9,350-9,450 yuan/ton, with regional offerings falling successively by 30-50 yuan/ton. High-pressure prices in East China were reported at 9,400-10,600 yuan/ton, with some offerings falling slightly by 50 yuan/ton. High-pressure prices in South China were reported at 9,750-10,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. High-pressure prices in Southwest China were reported at 9,450-9,650 yuan/ton, falling successively by 50 yuan/ton compared to yesterday.

The overall PP market prices remained stable, with the mainstream price of wire drawing quoted at 7,200-7,490 yuan/ton. In the North China region, the wire drawing price was quoted at 7,250-7,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In the South China region, the wire drawing price was quoted at 7,280-7,430 yuan/ton, with offers in the region gradually declining by 20 yuan/ton. In the East China region, the wire drawing price was quoted at 7,380-7,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In the Southwest region, the wire drawing price was quoted at 7,200-7,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day.

On the macro front, the latest data released by the University of Michigan shows that the U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in over two years, while long-term inflation expectations have reached their highest point in 32 years. With inflation data deteriorating, the U.S. consumption outlook appears bleak. This is bearish for the demand of bulk commodities. However, considering the relatively stable domestic economic situation, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on March 31 that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. This leading indicator reflecting macroeconomic performance has shown accelerated expansion.

In summary, the futures market opened lower and fluctuated at low levels, with most plastic market prices declining. PE prices have gradually decreased by 20-50 yuan/ton, while the PP market remained stable with a local decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The additional tariffs imposed overseas have suppressed some domestic product export orders, leading industry participants to have a pessimistic outlook on future demand. However, the consumption of social inventory at the end of the month, coupled with concentrated maintenance by enterprises, supports the market and alleviates downward pressure. In the short term, there is no positive guidance in the market, and negative news is continuously emerging, leading to a bearish outlook on plastic prices.