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High profits "lure" refineries to increase operations; can polypropylene shake off the low point in the second quarter under the leadership of spring maintenance?

Zhongzhong 2025-03-25 20:42:26

2025 Since Then, Polyethylene has maintained a high cost profit margin for three years, with Polyethylene companies operating at full capacity. As of March 24, 2025, the production utilization rate for Polyethylene companies reached 78.86%, an increase of 3.14% from the previous quarter, and a 2.82% increase from the same quarter last year.

One: OneQuarter TrumpThe new policy has weakened the sentiment for commodities. Polypropylene "Sleeve Edge Slightly Wet"

From the perspective of polypropylene price trends in the first quarter, the price focus for yarn grade hovered around 7300-7500 yuan/ton with narrow fluctuations. The lack of significant price movement is mainly due to advanced trading in response to supply pressure, and demand support remains acceptable due to export and spot pricing orders. In the context of a wide-ranging decline, polypropylene experienced a narrow decline in the first quarter, allowing oil-based enterprises to restore their profits.

With the improvement in corporate profit, the polyester production showed significant increase, as shown in the graph. As of mid-February and mid-week, the polyester plant was in low maintenance and inspection mode, with production utilization rate suddenly rising to 80% above the absolute high.

Two: OneQuarterly negative loss volume significantly decreased.The maintenance intensity of quarterly polypropylene may not be as strong as the same period last year.

From specific data, the 1st quarter loss of聚丙烯 exceeded last year, and loss rate declined sharply. During the 2nd quarter,聚丙烯 entered the seasonal inspection season. In the 1st quarter, the loss of聚丙烯 increased month by month. In April- June, the planned in-house inspection increased month by month. In 2025, the inspection will be concentrated in April- May, and several projects such as the cleaning of the gas network, the extension of the coal and gold chemical industries, and the extension of the timber plantations will be inspected to help increase the inspection loss.

From a year-on-year perspective, considering the new plants like ExxonMobil Huizhou and Baofeng in Inner Mongolia are ramping up with low operating rates, leading to higher production losses, the overall maintenance scope may be less than the same period last year. The polypropylene (PP) maintenance loss in Q2 2025 is projected to be 274.978, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%.

Three: Analyzing Market Support from the Demand Side - Part TwoQuarterly launch accelerated by demand support in FMCG or similar sectors

From downstream data, the quarterly production trend of the agrochemicals and packaging industry is trending upward, with continuous upward movement from mid-February, indicating that the production of the downstream industry started to rebound and accelerated. As data tracking shows, the demand for disposable cups, sanitary products, and household items have been improving, driving the overall consumption of the downstream industry upward.

Four: 2Market Influencing Factors Evaluation of Seasonal Agro-Processing Market

Overall, in the second quarter, polypropylene may exhibit a dual increase in supply and demand. The increase on the supply side mainly comes from the release of new capacity pressure, while the demand side shows growth driven by sustained export orders and a recovery in fast-moving consumer goods consumption. Cost pressures are evident, with both crude oil and propane demand weakening, leading to a high probability of cost decline. In terms of inventory, although downstream has a certain capacity for replenishment, the low purchasing willingness may struggle to provide strong support for the market. In summary, it is expected that in the second quarter of 2025, polypropylene will face significant downward pressure, with the market operating range likely between 7,100 and 7,400 yuan/ton.

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High profits "lure" refineries to increase operations; can polypropylene shake off the low point in the second quarter under the leadership of spring maintenance?

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