Future opportunities for abs resin

As the material is so widely used, it is not surprising that China has become the world's largest producer and consumer.

ABSThe current state of the industry is difficult to describe in a few words; it can only be said that the days ahead will be more difficult and challenging compared to other materials.

Current market situation and challenges: overcapacity and structural imbalance

Friends all know that the entire industry is fighting against involution. Many businesses have already slowed down or even halted the expansion of new capacities, and some businesses are showing subtle signs of bottoming out and rebounding.

ABSThe resin industry can be said that the most competitive times may not have arrived yet, and the difficult days are still ahead.

Why do you say that?

Due to the clear trend of capacity expansion and the demand growth having already slowed down, the trailing effect of overcapacity will last for a long time.

ABSThe industry faces two major challenges: continuous capacity expansion and slowing demand. These challenges will overshadow the industry's next few years.

2024By the end of the year, our countryABSThe total production capacity has already reached916.5 /By the end of this year, it is highly likely to exceed ten million tons.

According to the current public information,2025 2Yu Long Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in the quarter.3Shandong Yike of the quarter4In each quarter, Jilin Petrochemical has new units starting up, and it is already certain that supply will significantly increase in the second half of the year.

Under the backdrop of continuously soaring production capacity, demand is stagnating with slow growth.2024The actual domestic production for the year is548.8 Ten thousand tons, compared to2023The year has declined.6.8%The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is only60%。

The logic of saying that production capacity is surging while demand hasn't kept up seems a bit flawed. It should be stated that the growth in demand is insufficient, yet production capacity has expanded prematurely. In short, companies are still too optimistic about demand expectations.

The prolonged oversupply has led to the industry's capacity being difficult to utilize effectively.2024The capacity utilization rate of the year is only60%。

Consider the insufficient operating rate.100%The average load rate of the device under the working conditions should be insufficient.70%Such long-term low-load operation cannot reduce energy costs.

The product price leaves one speechless.2025 Before the year5monthABSThe market average price is only1.08 /Ton, compared to2024The year fell.22.2%。

2025 9 12Mainstream Daily Quotation9962.50 /Ton, compare6The month has fallen again.6.46%Some low-priced products have even dropped to9000 /Ton.

Because raw material prices are also falling,ABSThe cost support is insufficient, transaction prices are accelerating downward, and product profits have significantly shrunk.

The entire industry2023The average loss for the whole year.68 / 2024Annual average loss253 / 2025Due to the decrease in raw material prices this year, each ton can yield approximately a profit.234

2025The increase in supply in the second half of the year,ABSThe profit situation is not optimistic, and it is highly likely to fall to the cost line or even incur a loss.

ABSThe proportion of generic products in the market is approximately80%The proportion of special products is approximately20%I'm sorry, but the text you provided is incomplete and appears to be cut off. Could you please provide the complete sentence or more context so I can assist you better with the translation?ABS Basically, we still need to rely on imports.

Structural Contradictions and Breakthroughs: Pathways for High-End Development

Overall production capacity has been severely excessive, and companies should focus on high value-added specialties.ABSThe resin has no performance, and it is difficult to have a turnaround opportunity in the short term.

ABSResin, mainly refers to transparency.ABSElectroplating grade, high heat resistance, high impact resistance, and other grades with special properties.

Due to the high technical barriers in formulation design, polymerization process, and stable production, it is difficult to produce without long-term research accumulation and talent reserve.

ABSLeading companies are also striving to break through and overcome the technological barriers of high-end materials.

Tianjin Daguhua, developed emulsion grafting bulk.SAN Transparent blending methodABSResin is considered an important technological breakthrough.

Jilin Petrochemical has also laid out high-end products with high fluidity.HF-681Electroplating materialEP-161Bag materialST-571Ultra-high impact resistant helmet materialTH-191These all belong to high value-added products.

After overcapacity, the market inevitably declines, accelerating industry reshuffling. The laggards are the first to exit, and those remaining are also scarred.

Financially weak, small-scale, and technologically inferior enterprises will be the first to exit, and technologically outdated installations have already begun to shut down permanently.

The remaining industry leaders are considering mergers and acquisitions to integrate resources, continuously increase their market concentration, and consolidate their positions in the industry.

CR5The concentration of production capacity has been reached.46.85%Increased year-on-year.0.42%The initial signs of industry consolidation have already emerged.

3. Evolving application demands, advancing both traditional and emerging fields.

The home appliance industry has always beenABSThe largest application area for resin accounts for a high demand share.62%。

China is the world's largest producer of household appliances, with a scale exceeding...8300Hundred billion yuan home appliance retail market, forABSThere's a huge market demand space.

The inner liners, outer shells, and decorative panels of household appliances such as refrigerators, televisions, and washing machines can all be used.ABSResin.

Automotive industryABSThe demand is also relatively high, accounting for approximately the total demand.11%。

ABSThe demand for resin is very extensive in applications such as dashboards, steering wheels, and air vents.

2023The annual automobile production in our country is3016.1 ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth of11.6%，2024Annual production is3128.2ten thousand units, year-on-year growth again3.7%。

The growth momentum of new energy vehicles is even stronger.2024The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China this year are respectively.1288.8ten thousand vehicles and1286.610,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of34.4% 35.5%。

ABSThe fundamental demand side of the industry will remain very stable, and there is no possibility of a significant drop in demand. However, without more new applications, a substantial increase in demand seems unlikely.

In addition to these traditional stable demands,ABS The industry needs to expand into more new applications.

In the healthcare industry, some high-end medical device casings, surgical tools, and diagnostic devices, medical gradeABSCan replace the high-cost ones.PCTGMaterials.

Interior and exterior of the carABSMembrane can replace traditionalPVCLeather has a better texture and environmental friendliness.

Jilin Petrochemical'sTH-191The product, due to its high strength, good toughness, and exceptional impact resistance, is used in the manufacturing of high-end helmets.

Whether in traditional fields or new application scenarios, it can be seen thatABSThe market demand for resin is generally stable, and as long as the economy grows steadily, the market space will also grow steadily.

Becoming extremely wealthy is impossible, but getting by comfortably during good times is still achievable.

Policy Direction and Future Development Trends

The previous content has been analyzed extensively.ABSThe pace of capacity expansion has not slowed down.

So in terms of national policy, regardingThe strategy of strictly controlling the addition of ABS production capacity is implemented.

Restrict the expansion of production capacity for generic products and encourage the transition towards high-end, differentiated, and green development. This should be considered as pushing the industry to transform.

Ten million tons of total production capacity.60%The capacity utilization rate is extremely wasteful, and transformation seems to be no longer a choice but an inevitable path.

Looking at the present, envisioning the future, future5Years or even longer,ABSThe major adjustments in the industry are almost unavoidable; some will become new leaders in cutting-edge fields, while others can only quietly exit the stage.

Future leading companies must have high-end new technologies in special products to meet differentiated demands.

General products must have industrial chain synergy and extremely low production costs, otherwise it is difficult to maintain their position in the industry.

Leading enterprises can still support small and medium-sized enterprises."Exchange quantity for price"Squeeze its living space, and for equivalent competitors, rely only on technological and cost advantages.

Small and medium-sized enterprises cannot compete with giants in all areas, but they can choose to focus on specific niches.1-2Focusing on high-growth, technologically demanding niche areas, and striving for in-depth cultivation to become“Invisible Champion”Only then can one survive.

FutureABSIn the industry, without the advantages of high-end positioning and differentiation, it is basically difficult to survive.