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【EVA Weekly Outlook】The situation of weak supply and demand will continue, and it is expected that the domestic EVA market will maintain a stable and consolidating trend this week.

Longzhong 2025-03-31 08:39:07

I. Focus Points

1. 3/28: Market concerns about the U.S. increasing tariffs and enhancing trade risks may lead to a global economic recession, causing international oil prices to fall. NYMEXCrude oil futuresThe May contract for WTI crude oil fell by $0.56 to $69.36 per barrel, a decrease of 0.80% month-on-month; the May contract for ICE Brent crude oil fell by $0.40 to $73.63 per barrel, a decrease of 0.54%. The main contract for China's INE crude oil futures, 2505, fell by 1.7 to 541.7 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it fell by 3.7 to 538 yuan per barrel.

2. Ethylene: The market supply is unusually sufficient, and the downstream consumption capacity is insufficient. The fundamental market conditions remain bearish, and it is expected that prices may continue to decline. The estimated trading range is expected to remain between 6,900-7,150 yuan/ton; the US dollar market is expected to remain between 840-860 US dollars/ton.

Vinyl acetate: Producers on the supply side are fulfilling orders, while the demand side is following up as needed with a steady pace. Middlemen are quoting prices based on market conditions, with limited new orders being negotiated, and the focus of negotiations remains on the lower end. As the end of the month approaches for settlement, industry players are paying more attention to the flow of downstream goods and changes in the operating load on the supply side. Market fluctuations are limited, and it is expected that vinyl acetate prices will remain stable in the near term.Ethylene MarketWeak and stable, awaiting consolidation.

Core Logic:On the cost side, the ethylene and vinyl acetate markets are expected to be weak, reducing the support from the cost aspect. The photovoltaic demand is strong, providing some support. The supply side from petrochemical producers continues to maintain the market without pressure. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the market may continue to consolidate horizontally.

II. Price List

III. Data Form

IV. Market Outlook

In the short term, the domestic EVA market may maintain a stalemate and consolidation trend. The temporary favorable demand in the photovoltaic sector supports the market, and EVA producers continue to hold firm on pricing. The supply side remains tight, while downstream foam terminal factories resist high-priced purchases. Industry participants adopt a cautious approach and operate according to market conditions. The stalemate of weak supply and demand persists, and it is expected that the domestic EVA market will stabilize or consolidate this week. Forecast: soft materials are expected to range between 11,400-11,700 yuan/ton, and hard materials between 11,200-11,600 yuan/ton.

Five, Data Calendar

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【EVA Weekly Outlook】The situation of weak supply and demand will continue, and it is expected that the domestic EVA market will maintain a stable and consolidating trend this week.

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