[eva weekly outlook] domestic eva market expected to consolidate strongly this week

I. Focus Points

1 、 Crude oil:[Longzhong] August 15: The market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to ease further, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $1.16 per barrel to $62.80, a decrease of 1.81% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $0.99 per barrel to $65.85, a decrease of 1.48% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2510 contract rose by 3.0 to 488.9 yuan per barrel, and the night session fell by 4.8 to 484.1 yuan per barrel.

2 、 Ethylene: On the supply side, Satellite Chemical has shut down an ethane cracking unit for maintenance, providing positive support for the supply side. On the demand side, the current operating load of downstream factories reliant on external procurement is acceptable, and there is a willingness in the market for just-needed buying. Considering the current supply and demand situation, the spot price in the East China region may be strong on the next working day, with the transaction range expected to be around 6900-6950 RMB/ton; the USD market is expected to be between 810-840 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate The vinyl acetate market is weakly consolidating, with stable operating loads on the supply side and no significant improvement in downstream demand. Users are making inquiries based on just-in-time needs, but there is insufficient follow-up on new orders. The price focus remains on the low end. It is advised to cautiously monitor the shipment pace of production enterprises and any guidance from news. In the short term, the vinyl acetate market is expected to operate in a weak consolidation.

Core Logic: The cost aspect of ethylene is relatively strong, while vinyl acetate is weakly consolidated. The overall cost support tends to weaken. EVA petrochemical manufacturers continue to maintain a strong stance, with downstream sectors passively following. The market is expected to show a relatively strong consolidation trend. 。

2. Price List Form

3. Data Form

4. Market Outlook

Last week, the domestic EVA market experienced a strong upward adjustment. Looking at this week, petrochemical manufacturers' ex-factory prices are still mainly adjusted upwards. With the shutdown and maintenance of facilities at Gulei, Sinochem, and Tianli, the main supply side remains strong. Traders may be more willing to sell. The demand for photovoltaics has been relatively well supported recently, while foam terminal factories may resist high-priced sources. The market needs time to digest the increase. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will operate with a strong consolidation this week. Forecast: Soft material reference price is 10,600-10,900 RMB/ton, hard material reference price is 10,000-10,500 RMB/ton, and photovoltaic material is 9,700-10,000 RMB/ton.

5. Data Calendar