[EVA Weekly Forecast] Prices Expected to Have Further Room for Increase

I. Points of Focus

1 、 Crude Oil:[Longzhong] September 5: The market continues to focus on this Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, fearing the introduction of a new production increase plan, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $1.61 per barrel to $61.87, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the previous day. ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract fell by $1.49 per barrel to $65.50, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the previous day. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2510 contract dropped by 1.3 to 482.3 yuan per barrel, with a night session drop of 10.4 to 471.9 yuan per barrel.

2 、 Ethylene: The downstream buying sentiment is generally moderate, and the market's bearish sentiment is increasing. It is possible that some low prices may appear in the next cycle. On the next working day, spot prices in the East China region may narrow slightly, with the transaction range expected to be around 7,050-7,200 yuan/ton; the USD market is expected to be between 830-850 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The vinyl acetate market is experiencing narrow fluctuations and consolidation. Some production facilities on the supply side are expected to undergo short-term maintenance, leading to a reduction in local spot supply and prompting production companies to raise their external quotes. On the demand side, downstream buyers are following up as needed, but there is a strong sense of market caution. The fundamentals have improved compared to earlier, and it is expected that the market price center for vinyl acetate will shift towards the mid-to-high end in the near future.

Core logic: On the cost side, ethylene shows a weakening trend, while vinyl acetate is expected to rise, providing overall solid cost support. On the supply side, EVA has no pressure and tends to hold prices firm, with strong demand from the photovoltaic sector taking the lead. The market is expected to maintain a strong trend. 。

2. Price List

3. Data Form

4. Market Outlook

Last week, the domestic EVA market maintained a firm and steady trend. This week, domestic EVA manufacturers' ex-factory settlement prices and listing prices are mainly stable or continue to rise. Strong demand from the downstream photovoltaic sector supports the market, and increased costs on the trade side have led to high quoted prices. Although foam end-use factories resist high-priced sources, the strong photovoltaic demand makes the market easier to rise than fall. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to operate firmly, with further price increases possible. Forecast: soft EVA material reference price at 11,200-11,500 RMB/ton, hard EVA material at 10,500-11,200 RMB/ton, and photovoltaic EVA material at 10,800-11,000 RMB/ton.

5. Data Calendar