I. Points of Focus

1. [Longzhong] March 25: The Russia-Ukraine talks continue to advance, but the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, leading to mixed movements in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for May contract fell by $0.11 to $69.00 per barrel, a decrease of 0.16% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May contract rose by $0.02 to $73.02 per barrel, an increase of 0.03%. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures 2505 rose by 4.0 to 537.3 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it increased by 1.3 to 538.6 yuan per barrel.

2. Ethylene: Local production enterprises still face shipping pressure, and downstream factories primarily purchase based on demand and at lower prices. The market remains weak, dragged down by pessimistic sentiment. In the short term, ethylene still has the potential to continue to decline. The expected transaction range is anticipated to maintain between 7000-7200 RMB/ton; the USD market is expected to remain between 840-860 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The supply side of vinyl acetate is operating at a steady load, with some plants having short-term maintenance expectations. Production enterprises have orders and shipments, and the market supply of spot goods is not abundant, leading to a stabilizing mindset among many companies. There is no significant improvement in small orders from downstream demand, and holders are taking a wait-and-see approach. As the end of the month approaches, some intermediaries are actively selling, with negotiation focuses leaning towards the mid to low end. Attention is on the downstream EVA production schedule and changes in the supply side's operating load. It is expected that the vinyl acetate market will operate in a narrow range for the upcoming days.

Core Logic:The cost of ethylene and vinyl acetate is weakly stable, with weak support from the cost side. The EVA supply side has no pressure to support the market, and the downstream demand for foaming is driven by basic needs. Both supply and demand are weak, or they will operate steadily in a consolidating manner.

II. Price List

Market Outlook

In the short term, the domestic EVA fundamentals are expected to remain weak and stable. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, ongoing price negotiations may persist. The strong support from the photovoltaic demand is expected to keep EVA producers from reducing prices, while the tight supply of foaming material continues. However, the weak terminal demand in the foaming sector will prevent significant increases in transaction volumes. Market participants are likely to adopt a cautious观望and settling attitude, mainly engaging in limited operations. It is anticipated that the domestic EVA market will likely operate in a weak and stable state. Mainstream market prices: hard materials will fluctuate between 11,200-11,700 yuan/ton, soft materials will range between 11,400-11,800 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic materials will fluctuate between 11,500-11,900 yuan/ton.