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【EVA Morning Update】Foam supply replenished, EVA market may remain weak and consolidate.

Longzhong 2025-04-01 08:38:44

One, Focus Areas

1 、【Longzhong】3/27: The U.S. continues sanctions on some oil-producing countries, and the market is concerned about potential supply risks, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEXCrude oil futuresThe 05 contract rose by $0.27/barrel to 69.92, up 0.39% from the previous period; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose by $0.24/barrel to 74.03, up 0.33% from the previous period. The main contract 2505 of China's INE crude oil futures rose by 4.0 yuan to 543.4 yuan/barrel, and fell by 0.4 yuan to 543 yuan/barrel in the night trading session.

2 Ethyne: 4 In terms of monthly outlook, several ethylene units such as those at Serbon, Bohua Development, and Yangzi BASF are undergoing maintenance, leading to expectations of reduced ethylene production. However, these maintenance units are all integrated facilities, so the impact on circulation is limited. Currently, ethylene production enterprises are largely maintaining external sales in April, and the situation of abundant circulation is likely to continue. Additionally, ethylene supply from South Korea is steadily being output, resulting in a rich flow of resources in the Northeast Asia region. Downstream procurement channels are ample, and external procurement is expected to continue at a slow pace, compounded by the difficulty in restoring terminal demand, thus the bearish sentiment on the demand side persists. Considering the overall fundamental situation, it is expected that in April...Ethylene marketThe probability of weakness is relatively high. The price range in the East China market is expected to be around 6800-7200 yuan/ton, while the CFR Northeast Asia price range is expected to be around 840-860 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: In April, multiple facilities for vinyl acetate will be shut down for maintenance, leading to a decrease in industry production capacity, with manufacturers primarily focusing on fulfilling existing orders, thus reducing the supply of spot goods. Downstream, two EVA plants are scheduled for maintenance, while another is switching back to produce EVA, slightly reducing bulk demand. The export demand for polyvinyl alcohol remains strong, and sources from acetylene processes will continue to prioritize supplying polyvinyl alcohol production, with limited probability of increased supply. Currently, no shutdowns have been announced for VAE emulsion facilities, and its demand remains stable. Overall, the reduction in vinyl acetate supply in April is expected to provide stronger support for price increases.

Core Logic: On the cost side, ethylene and vinyl acetate are running weakly, reducing the support from the cost side. Some factories are switching to producing EVA foam material, which could add to the supply.Downstream bubble demand is刚需跟进 (strictly followed up), market sentiment has become somewhat松动 (loosened), it is expected that the EVA market will run偏弱整理 (weakly adjusted). Note: Some phrases were partially translated due to the use of Chinese idioms or abbreviations which do not have direct translations. For a more accurate translation, these phrases should be clarified in full terms.

II. Price List Form

Product Name	Category	3 28th of the month	3 March 31st	rise and fall	Unit
crude oil	NYMEX	69.36	71.48	2.12	USD/barrel
crude oil	ICE	73.63	74.74	1.11	USD/barrel
Ethylene	Northeast Asia	855	855	0	USD/ton
	Southeast Asia	920	920	0	USD/ton
	Sinopec East China	7100	7100	0	Yuan/ton
Vinyl acetate	East China Market	5925	5925	0	yuan/ton

Three. Market Outlook

In the short term, the domestic EVA market has a high volume of orders for photovoltaic production, with some petrochemical plants switching to producing foaming materials, thereby supplementing the supply of foaming goods. Under the strong demand support from the photovoltaic sector, petrochemical companies will likely continue to maintain their prices. Downstream consumers will continue to purchase foaming materials out of necessity, and market participants' mindsets may become more relaxed. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may mainly undergo a weak adjustment. The mainstream market price: hard material will fluctuate between 11,200-11,600 yuan per ton, soft material may fluctuate between 11,400-11,700 yuan per ton, and photovoltaic material will fluctuate between 11,500-11,900 yuan per ton.

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【EVA Morning Update】Foam supply replenished, EVA market may remain weak and consolidate.

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