[eva morning briefing] domestic eva market prices expected to show narrow range adjustment trend

I. Points of Interest

1 [Longzhong] 9/18: Market concerns over the poor outlook for the U.S. economy and demand overshadowed the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $0.48/barrel to $63.57, a decrease of 0.75% from the previous day; ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract fell by $0.51/barrel to $67.44, a decrease of 0.75% from the previous day. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract fell by 3.5 to 496.3 yuan/barrel, with a night session decline of 7.5 to 488.8 yuan/barrel.

2 Ethylene: It is expected that the ethylene market in the next period may continue to weaken. As the National Day holiday approaches, suppliers are inclined to accelerate inventory clearance, so further discounts are possible. It is anticipated that domestic ethylene prices are likely to continue to decline. In the US dollar market, the advantage of RMB resources is increasing, and some regions may increase procurement to replace part of the imports. Additionally, long-distance cargo also has a price advantage. To maintain the arbitrage space and competitiveness with domestic resources, import suppliers may slightly lower prices. The expected transaction average price in the East China region is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton; the US dollar market is expected to range between 830-860 dollars/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The vinyl acetate market is expected to consolidate within a range in the next period. With some cargo arriving in the East China region and some previously shut down facilities restarting, the supply of spot goods is gradually increasing, which may limit the follow-up of high-end prices. As the National Day holiday approaches, some downstream users still have stocking expectations, and production enterprises face no sales pressure, supporting industry sentiment with strong price-holding sentiments. Attention should be paid to the shipment pace of production enterprises and the flow of goods. It is expected that the market price focus will consolidate within a range next week.

Core Logic: The cost aspect of ethylene remains stable and consolidating, with vinyl acetate showing a consolidating trend. Cost support is fairly adequate, and the EVA supply side is strongly supported. However, the downstream purchasing pace has slowed down, resulting in the market operating in a sideways consolidation.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

Next week, the domestic EVA market is expected to have stable support from the supply side with no inventory concerns. Some orders remain relatively tight, and the spot demand for photovoltaic materials is decent. However, downstream foam manufacturers are resistant to purchasing at high raw material prices, making it difficult for transactions to significantly increase. Some holders, preferring to secure profits before the holiday, may offer discounts to facilitate deals. Overall, it is expected that the domestic EVA market prices may show a narrow adjustment trend. Forecast: Soft material is expected to be 11,300-11,700 yuan/ton, hard material 10,800-11,500 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic material 11,000-11,200 yuan/ton.