[EVA Morning Briefing] Domestic EVA Market Expected to Weaken in the Short Term

I. Points of Attention

1 [Longzhong] 10/15: Market concerns over the risk of oversupply and the trade disputes initiated by the United States suppress demand prospects, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract fell by $0.43 per barrel to $58.27, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the December contract fell by $0.48 per barrel to $61.91, a decrease of 0.77% from the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the contract 2512 fell by 7.6 to 444.9 yuan per barrel, and the night session fell by 1.9 to 443 yuan per barrel.

2 Ethylene: The market's acceptance of low-end ethylene prices has increased, and it is expected that mainstream quotes will remain stable. It is anticipated that ethylene prices will primarily stabilize tomorrow, with the transaction range in the East China region expected to be around 6,100-6,400 yuan/ton; there is ample supply of USD cargo, and prices are expected to remain weakly stable between 780-790 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The production enterprises on the supply side of vinyl acetate are experiencing smooth order shipments, and the market has a low volume of circulating spot goods. The sentiment among industry players is relatively supportive, and price offers continue at a high level. There is still strong support from downstream large orders, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term. Therefore, there is still an expectation of price increases in the short term. Attention should be paid to the shipping pace of enterprises using the calcium carbide method and changes in market sentiment. It is expected that the vinyl acetate market will continue to operate at a high and firm level in the short term.

Core Logic: The positive news in the market is weak, downstream demand is slow to follow up, spot transactions are sluggish, and the focus of transactions is weak and trending downward.

II. Price List

3. Market Outlook

Currently, the downstream demand in the domestic EVA market is insufficient. In the photovoltaic sector, spot purchases have slowed down, while in the foam downstream, terminal orders are not as strong as expected for the peak season, and purchasing remains cautious with sporadic just-in-need buying. Holders are experiencing difficulties in selling, and spot digestion is slow, leading to a strong bearish sentiment among industry players. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will weakly decline in the short term. Forecast: Soft material is expected to be 10,400-11,000 RMB/ton, hard material 10,400-11,100 RMB/ton, and photovoltaic material 10,600-10,900 RMB/ton.