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【EVA Morning Brief】With the supply side continuing to support prices, it is expected that the EVA market will mainly remain in a sideways consolidation.

Longzhong 2025-03-05 08:37:06

1. Key Focus

1、【Longzhong】3/4: The U.S. policy of increasing tariffs has triggered potential risks of trade disputes, coupled with the fact that OPEC+ will slightly increase production from April, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for April fell by $0.11 to $68.26 per barrel, a decrease of -0.16% month-over-month; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May dropped by $0.58 to $71.04 per barrel, a reduction of -0.81% month-over-month. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2504 fell by 7.7 to 531.5 yuan per barrel, and further declined by 12.7 to 518.8 yuan per barrel during the night session.

2、Ethylene: From the perspective of current market conditions, the quotations from production enterprises continue to hit new lows. This situation has further intensified the wait-and-see atmosphere among downstream companies, making the market trading atmosphere more cautious and hesitant. Against this backdrop, there is a possibility of price negotiation adjustments. Analyzing the US dollar market, the pressure on the supply side cannot be effectively alleviated in the short term. Moreover, the demand for shipments remains strong. In summary, prices may remain stable at high levels. It is expected that the transaction range will be maintained between 7,600-7,700 yuan/ton; the US dollar market is expected to rise to 900-910 USD/ton.

Vinyl Acetate: Some vinyl acetate facilities have restarted, leading to an overall increase in operating load, enhancing cost support. Downstream demand is relatively stable, with a firm mindset among industry players, maintaining a focus on higher-end negotiations. Given the expectation of supply contraction, intermediaries are reluctant to sell at low prices, paying close attention to changes in the operating load of calcium carbide-based facilities. It is anticipated that the market trend will continue to consolidate at high levels in the near future.

Core Logic: With expectations of rising costs for ethylene and vinyl acetate, along with strong domestic EVA supply support, the market may maintain a firm consolidation trend.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

In the short term, the petrochemical supply side continues to support prices, with tight agent inventories leading to firm prices. Downstream foam demand revolves around essential needs, showing some resistance to high-priced supplies. Traders are very cautious, and it is expected that the domestic EVA market will mainly consolidate sideways. Mainstream market prices: rigid materials will fluctuate between 11,300-11,700 yuan/ton, flexible materials or between 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic materials between 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton.

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【EVA Morning Brief】With the supply side continuing to support prices, it is expected that the EVA market will mainly remain in a sideways consolidation.

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